Key Takeaways
- • Wheat production cut sharply: USDA's WASDE report reduced U.S. wheat production forecasts based on lower yield expectations, with ending stocks adjusted downward to 744 million bushels and average farm price cut to $6.00/bu; Hard Red Winter wheat crop conditions remain among the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas despite improving weather forecasts in the Great Plains.
- • Corn prices declined on long liquidation despite strong fundamentals: Thursday corn futures fell on profit-taking despite robust Midwest crop conditions rated as good, normal emergence progress, and USDA reports showing slight increases in beginning and ending stocks; lower petroleum prices linked to Iran war developments supported the complex.
- • Soybeans pressured by favorable North American conditions and South American competition: Rapid planting and emergence progress reported by USDA with high condition ratings failed to support prices, as long liquidation, lack of China trade news, and competing South American harvests weighed on Chicago soybean futures; cooler temperatures and wet weather expected in the Midwest next week.
- • Rice rallied on short covering despite favorable supply outlook: Long grain rice futures closed significantly higher Thursday on short covering; WASDE showed yield and production increases for long grain with unchanged demand, though U.S. rice planted area expected to decline 12% in the coming year and demand remains moderate to poor.
- • Cotton and soft commodities mixed as geopolitical factors influence energy and sugar: Cotton futures declined on pre-holiday long liquidation with USDA showing reduced beginning and ending stocks (3.70 million bales); sugar markets rallied amid Iran war de-escalation prospects and good global growing conditions, while coffee declined on harvest delays despite robust next-crop development.
Summary
Agricultural futures markets displayed mixed performance the week of June 22, 2026, with commodity-specific supply dynamics and weather patterns driving directional moves across grain, oilseed, and soft commodity complexes. The USDA's June WASDE report proved pivotal, triggering significant portfolio adjustments and reassessments of global production balances heading into the second half of the crop year.
Wheat markets closed lower despite fundamental headwinds persisting in the Northern Hemisphere. The WASDE report reduced U.S. production forecasts based on yield cuts, while demand remained unchanged and ending stocks contracted to 744 million bushels. Average farm prices were similarly reduced to $6.00/bu in response to price action. Hard Red Winter wheat crop conditions in the Southern Plains remain critically stressed—among the lowest levels recorded in over 30 years—providing underlying support, though conditions showed deterioration week-over-week. Central Great Plains rainfall forecasts and actual precipitation have provided some relief, with Spring Wheat conditions improving and progressing ahead of schedule. Russian wheat development has been hampered by cold weather, while European conditions remain favorable. The Winter Wheat harvest has progressed past the 10% mark.
Corn futures declined Thursday on long liquidation in advance of the long weekend despite constructive fundamental and technical developments. Strong Midwest crop conditions, rated good by USDA with emergence tracking near normal, failed to offset profit-taking. The WASDE report showed minimal changes, with slight increases in both beginning and ending stocks. Lower petroleum prices stemming from Iran war developments supported the complex indirectly. Good growing conditions are forecast to continue in the Midwest, though some fields experienced flooding from significant Midwest rainfall; drier conditions are expected this week with cooler temperatures anticipated. Argentine production expectations remain robust.
Soybean futures also retreated Thursday on long liquidation despite rapid planting and emergence progress reported by USDA, with crop conditions rated high across major U.S. production areas. The WASDE report left soybean balances unchanged month-over-month. Traders cited lack of headline news from China as a headwind, while competing South American harvests continue to weigh on pricing. Market participants are discussing potential shifts toward increased soybean planting as corn planting becomes more costly. Next week is expected to bring cooler temperatures and wet weather to Midwest growing regions.
Rice futures surged Thursday on short covering, gaining despite favorable supply fundamentals. The WASDE report showed yield and production increases for long grain rice with unchanged demand and modestly higher ending stocks. Average farm prices remained flat at $12.00/cwt for long grain and $13.50 for all rice. Notably, USDA projected U.S. rice planted area will decline approximately 12% next year. Emergence is tracking ahead of average, though condition ratings were unchanged week-over-week. Demand for U.S. rice remains moderate to poor.
Soft commodities displayed varied performance driven by weather patterns and geopolitical developments. Sugar markets rallied amid reports that the Iran war may be de-escalating, with both parties reportedly ready to sign a memorandum of understanding in Geneva. Good global cane and beet growing conditions support adequate supplies, with drier conditions in Brazil and India benefiting harvests. Coffee futures declined on long liquidation before the extended weekend despite harvest delays in Brazil and Vietnam, though next-crop development remains favorable across South America and Asia. Cotton futures fell pre-holiday on long liquidation; USDA data showed reduced beginning and ending stocks now estimated at 3.70 million bales, with condition improvements from poor to fair though still lagging year-ago levels. Scattered showers are forecast for Texas, the Delta, and Southeast cotton regions.
Wheat markets closed lower despite fundamental headwinds persisting in the Northern Hemisphere. The WASDE report reduced U.S. production forecasts based on yield cuts, while demand remained unchanged and ending stocks contracted to 744 million bushels. Average farm prices were similarly reduced to $6.00/bu in response to price action. Hard Red Winter wheat crop conditions in the Southern Plains remain critically stressed—among the lowest levels recorded in over 30 years—providing underlying support, though conditions showed deterioration week-over-week. Central Great Plains rainfall forecasts and actual precipitation have provided some relief, with Spring Wheat conditions improving and progressing ahead of schedule. Russian wheat development has been hampered by cold weather, while European conditions remain favorable. The Winter Wheat harvest has progressed past the 10% mark.
Corn futures declined Thursday on long liquidation in advance of the long weekend despite constructive fundamental and technical developments. Strong Midwest crop conditions, rated good by USDA with emergence tracking near normal, failed to offset profit-taking. The WASDE report showed minimal changes, with slight increases in both beginning and ending stocks. Lower petroleum prices stemming from Iran war developments supported the complex indirectly. Good growing conditions are forecast to continue in the Midwest, though some fields experienced flooding from significant Midwest rainfall; drier conditions are expected this week with cooler temperatures anticipated. Argentine production expectations remain robust.
Soybean futures also retreated Thursday on long liquidation despite rapid planting and emergence progress reported by USDA, with crop conditions rated high across major U.S. production areas. The WASDE report left soybean balances unchanged month-over-month. Traders cited lack of headline news from China as a headwind, while competing South American harvests continue to weigh on pricing. Market participants are discussing potential shifts toward increased soybean planting as corn planting becomes more costly. Next week is expected to bring cooler temperatures and wet weather to Midwest growing regions.
Rice futures surged Thursday on short covering, gaining despite favorable supply fundamentals. The WASDE report showed yield and production increases for long grain rice with unchanged demand and modestly higher ending stocks. Average farm prices remained flat at $12.00/cwt for long grain and $13.50 for all rice. Notably, USDA projected U.S. rice planted area will decline approximately 12% next year. Emergence is tracking ahead of average, though condition ratings were unchanged week-over-week. Demand for U.S. rice remains moderate to poor.
Soft commodities displayed varied performance driven by weather patterns and geopolitical developments. Sugar markets rallied amid reports that the Iran war may be de-escalating, with both parties reportedly ready to sign a memorandum of understanding in Geneva. Good global cane and beet growing conditions support adequate supplies, with drier conditions in Brazil and India benefiting harvests. Coffee futures declined on long liquidation before the extended weekend despite harvest delays in Brazil and Vietnam, though next-crop development remains favorable across South America and Asia. Cotton futures fell pre-holiday on long liquidation; USDA data showed reduced beginning and ending stocks now estimated at 3.70 million bales, with condition improvements from poor to fair though still lagging year-ago levels. Scattered showers are forecast for Texas, the Delta, and Southeast cotton regions.
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