Key Takeaways
- • Wheat prices declined last week despite historically low crop conditions in Hard Red Winter areas (lowest in 30+ years), as Winter Wheat harvest progressed past 40% completion; Spring Wheat conditions remain stable but European heat stress persists.
- • Corn futures filled a chart gap around 404 July despite Midwest flooding; crop conditions remain strong and unchanged, with silking underway and favorable growing forecasts continuing; cooler temperatures expected this week support crop development.
- • Soybeans and Soybean Meal traded higher despite improved Midwest conditions and absence of new China demand signals, with USDA reporting rapid planting and emergence progress; South American harvests continue to weigh on prices, though speculation of increased Chinese buying interest emerged.
- • Rice futures reached new highs for the move as the market recovers; USDA projects planted area will decline 12% in the coming year, with emergence at average levels and slightly improved conditions week-over-week.
- • Cocoa and sugar both advanced with upward daily trends; cocoa reached new highs amid West African main crop harvest arrival and positive rains for the next crop, while sugar benefited from geopolitical developments (Iran war pause) and good global growing conditions for cane and beets.
Summary
Agricultural futures markets displayed mixed directional momentum through the week ended June 29, 2026, with grain prices under pressure despite stressed supply conditions in certain regions, while softs markets—particularly cocoa and sugar—showed strength amid favorable production outlooks.
Wheat markets closed lower as harvest activity accelerated, with Winter Wheat completion surpassing 40% and yield reports remaining disappointing. Crop condition ratings in Hard Red Winter areas remain among the lowest in over 30 years, providing underlying price support despite the weekly decline. Spring Wheat conditions are rated stable with progress tracking normal, though European wheat areas continue experiencing excessive heat stress. The USDA's latest assessment showed mostly stable conditions overall, with dry weather and warming temperatures now developing across parts of the Midwest. Hard Red Spring Wheat futures data was unavailable at the time of reporting.
Corn futures declined modestly, filling a chart gap near the 404 July level, despite significant weather disruption from Midwest flooding. Crop conditions in the core growing region remain strong and unchanged from the prior week. USDA forecasts continue to project good growing conditions, with silking commencing and cooler temperatures anticipated for the coming week that should support pollination. Lower petroleum prices, attributed to the Iran war dynamics, have indirectly supported corn economics. Oats, by contrast, fell sharply with downward trends persisting on weekly charts.
Soybeans and Soybean Meal traded higher despite reports of improving Midwest conditions and absence of fresh China demand announcements. The USDA documented rapid planting and emergence progress with high condition ratings in latest assessments. Soybean Oil, however, closed lower on the absence of China-related news. Market participants are discussing potential shifts toward increased soybean acreage given the relative expense of corn planting. South American harvests continue exerting downward pressure on values, though morning speculation regarding Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans circulated without confirmed transactions. Cooler temperatures and wet weather are forecast for the Midwest in the coming week.
Softs markets demonstrated notable strength. Rice futures closed at new highs for the move as the market sustains its recovery; the USDA projects next-year planted acreage will decline approximately 12%, with emergence near average and conditions slightly improved week-over-week. Demand for U.S. rice remains moderate to poor. Cocoa reached new highs in New York with upward daily trends intact, supported by the arrival of West Africa's main crop harvest and positive rainfall for the developing next crop. Sugar futures in both New York and London advanced, with upward daily trends; the Iran war pause and ongoing Geneva negotiations have provided sentiment relief, while good supplies stemming from strong global growing conditions for cane and beets support the market.
Coffee futures in New York and London advanced in recovery trading, though harvest delays in Brazil and Vietnam continue to constrain current supplies. Global production conditions are rated generally good for the next crop in South America and Asia, though recent rains have pushed harvest progress behind year-ago levels. Brazil is now experiencing mostly dry conditions favorable for ongoing harvest activity. Orange juice and citrus futures declined with downward daily and weekly trends, reflecting continued dryness in Florida production areas, though scattered showers have emerged in parts of eastern Brazil.
Wheat markets closed lower as harvest activity accelerated, with Winter Wheat completion surpassing 40% and yield reports remaining disappointing. Crop condition ratings in Hard Red Winter areas remain among the lowest in over 30 years, providing underlying price support despite the weekly decline. Spring Wheat conditions are rated stable with progress tracking normal, though European wheat areas continue experiencing excessive heat stress. The USDA's latest assessment showed mostly stable conditions overall, with dry weather and warming temperatures now developing across parts of the Midwest. Hard Red Spring Wheat futures data was unavailable at the time of reporting.
Corn futures declined modestly, filling a chart gap near the 404 July level, despite significant weather disruption from Midwest flooding. Crop conditions in the core growing region remain strong and unchanged from the prior week. USDA forecasts continue to project good growing conditions, with silking commencing and cooler temperatures anticipated for the coming week that should support pollination. Lower petroleum prices, attributed to the Iran war dynamics, have indirectly supported corn economics. Oats, by contrast, fell sharply with downward trends persisting on weekly charts.
Soybeans and Soybean Meal traded higher despite reports of improving Midwest conditions and absence of fresh China demand announcements. The USDA documented rapid planting and emergence progress with high condition ratings in latest assessments. Soybean Oil, however, closed lower on the absence of China-related news. Market participants are discussing potential shifts toward increased soybean acreage given the relative expense of corn planting. South American harvests continue exerting downward pressure on values, though morning speculation regarding Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans circulated without confirmed transactions. Cooler temperatures and wet weather are forecast for the Midwest in the coming week.
Softs markets demonstrated notable strength. Rice futures closed at new highs for the move as the market sustains its recovery; the USDA projects next-year planted acreage will decline approximately 12%, with emergence near average and conditions slightly improved week-over-week. Demand for U.S. rice remains moderate to poor. Cocoa reached new highs in New York with upward daily trends intact, supported by the arrival of West Africa's main crop harvest and positive rainfall for the developing next crop. Sugar futures in both New York and London advanced, with upward daily trends; the Iran war pause and ongoing Geneva negotiations have provided sentiment relief, while good supplies stemming from strong global growing conditions for cane and beets support the market.
Coffee futures in New York and London advanced in recovery trading, though harvest delays in Brazil and Vietnam continue to constrain current supplies. Global production conditions are rated generally good for the next crop in South America and Asia, though recent rains have pushed harvest progress behind year-ago levels. Brazil is now experiencing mostly dry conditions favorable for ongoing harvest activity. Orange juice and citrus futures declined with downward daily and weekly trends, reflecting continued dryness in Florida production areas, though scattered showers have emerged in parts of eastern Brazil.
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