Weekly Ag Markets Update – 09/14/2026

Agricultural commodity futures showed mixed directional movement during the week ended September 14, 2026, as USDA crop reports intersected with persistent global weather stress and ongoing geopolitical disruption to grain flows. Wheat declined in response to USDA reporting despite a 20-cent increase in average farm price, reflecting market repricing of current conditions. Ukraine's president signaled willingness to negotiate grain export resumption with Russia, though Moscow dismissed Ukraine's proposal as impractical. US Winter Wheat harvest concluded with Spring Wheat at 51% good-to-excellent condition, but European production faces excessive heat stress. Midwest weather moderated with scattered showers and cooler temperatures forecast after difficult prior week conditions, while the Great Plains are expected to remain dry but less hot.

Corn futures rallied on USDA production cuts and mounting concerns over international crop losses. The agency reduced harvested area and yields, lowering production projections to 15.8 billion bushels with total demand cut to 16.180 billion bushels and feed demand trimmed to 5.950 billion bushels. Ending stocks contracted to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion the previous month, tightening supply fundamentals. Western and southern Midwest conditions remain stressed by heat and dryness, though European conditions are moderating. Crop progress runs ahead of normal with harvest underway, while conditions lag year-ago levels.

Soybeans and soybean meal declined despite favorable production developments. USDA raised harvested area and yields, increasing production to 4.535 billion bushels and higher exports, but ending stocks compressed to 310 million bushels from 320 million. Leaves are now dropping according to USDA, with crop conditions steady week-over-week but below year-ago benchmarks. The southern and western Midwest remain predominantly hot and dry, while cooler and drier weather is forecast for northern areas.

Rice harvest reached 43% completion with modest production adjustments. Long-grain ending stocks rose to 21.4 million cwt from 20.3 million, while demand remains moderate to poor. Brazil's strong pricing reflects short production concerns and El Niño fears for next-season crops, while Asian production faces similar El Niño risks and Indian prices remain elevated and rising. Cotton production fell to 13.2 billion bales with harvest at 7% progress; ending stocks declined to 369 million bales from 400 million. Scattered to isolated showers continue in Delta and Southeast regions with warm to hot temperatures forecast throughout.

Softer commodities showed divergent trends. Frozen concentrated orange juice futures rose on pre-report buying, with Florida remaining dry despite emerging showers while Mexican weather supports production and Brazilian conditions remain dry. Coffee prices were lower in New York but higher in London as Brazilian harvest nears completion with increasing supply offerings. Sugar futures were mixed across markets amid easing drought concerns in Europe and Brazil, though Indian production declined and Asian risk persists from El Niño. Cocoa fell to new lows for the move with declining daily and weekly trends, though West African main crop rains support next-crop prospects.