Key Takeaways
- • Wheat fell in both markets last week as US winter wheat planting reached 51% complete and 27% emerged, with ahead-of-normal development and improved Great Plains weather.
- • Corn declined on good harvest progress, now 44% complete and 95% mature, while strong weekly export sales and end-user buying provided support; trends are down on daily and weekly charts.
- • Rice closed higher and set new highs for the move, driven by tight global supply, El Nino production concerns in Asia, and hurricane damage to unharvested crops.
- • US orange production is estimated at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes against 13 million a year earlier, according to USDA.
- • Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year, as dry conditions raise concerns for 2026/27 output.
Summary
Wheat futures were lower in both markets last week as winter wheat planting and emergence ran ahead of normal, supported by much improved weather in the Great Plains. US winter wheat planting was 51% complete and 27% emerged. Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reported export paces more than 50% below a year earlier. Conditions in the US Midwest were mixed, with scattered showers forecast for parts of the region.
Corn futures declined on reports of good harvest progress amid warm and dry weather. The harvest reached 44% complete and the crop was 95% mature, with progress about normal. Good but not great yields were reported in some areas. Crop conditions improved slightly from the prior week but remained below year-ago levels. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand, and end-user buying with no farm selling continued to support the market, though daily and weekly trends are down. Oats were also lower with downward weekly trends. Shipping remains very limited in Ukraine and Russia.
Soybeans and soybean meal eased slightly on strong harvest progress, which reached 64% complete, despite new buying from China. The publisher expects China to purchase more US cargoes in coming weeks, though tariffs will remain high. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand, and crop condition was unchanged.
Rice closed higher for a second consecutive week and made new highs for the move, despite farm selling, as supply remains tight domestically and globally. Hurricane damage to unharvested crops and El Nino concerns for Asian and Brazilian production were cited. Indian prices remain high and rising. Harvest was 97% complete, and US rice demand was moderate to poor, though the weekly export sales report showed strong demand.
In vegetable oils, palm oil rose last week with mixed daily trends and weekly trends mixed to up. Canola declined, with weekly trends turning lower.
Cotton futures rose last week, partly on crude oil strength, despite increasing harvest progress. Conditions were 35% good to excellent according to USDA, with the crop 41% harvested and 85% of bolls open. Dry conditions were forecast for Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast.
FCOJ futures were slightly lower and remained in a range. USDA estimates US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million. Showers in Florida are aiding tree recovery, and Mexico conditions are considered good.
In coffee, New York closed higher while London fell as Brazilian selling continued at a slower pace. Producers are holding back on sales amid recent price weakness. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, and Central American premiums are at or near record highs due to drought.
Sugar futures in New York and London were lower, with downward trends in both markets. Brazilian refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar production as higher petroleum prices support ethanol values. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, and Indian output is reduced after hot, dry conditions.
Cocoa futures in New York and London closed slightly lower, with daily trends turning down. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast raise concerns for 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample. Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the main crop early.
Corn futures declined on reports of good harvest progress amid warm and dry weather. The harvest reached 44% complete and the crop was 95% mature, with progress about normal. Good but not great yields were reported in some areas. Crop conditions improved slightly from the prior week but remained below year-ago levels. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand, and end-user buying with no farm selling continued to support the market, though daily and weekly trends are down. Oats were also lower with downward weekly trends. Shipping remains very limited in Ukraine and Russia.
Soybeans and soybean meal eased slightly on strong harvest progress, which reached 64% complete, despite new buying from China. The publisher expects China to purchase more US cargoes in coming weeks, though tariffs will remain high. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand, and crop condition was unchanged.
Rice closed higher for a second consecutive week and made new highs for the move, despite farm selling, as supply remains tight domestically and globally. Hurricane damage to unharvested crops and El Nino concerns for Asian and Brazilian production were cited. Indian prices remain high and rising. Harvest was 97% complete, and US rice demand was moderate to poor, though the weekly export sales report showed strong demand.
In vegetable oils, palm oil rose last week with mixed daily trends and weekly trends mixed to up. Canola declined, with weekly trends turning lower.
Cotton futures rose last week, partly on crude oil strength, despite increasing harvest progress. Conditions were 35% good to excellent according to USDA, with the crop 41% harvested and 85% of bolls open. Dry conditions were forecast for Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast.
FCOJ futures were slightly lower and remained in a range. USDA estimates US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million. Showers in Florida are aiding tree recovery, and Mexico conditions are considered good.
In coffee, New York closed higher while London fell as Brazilian selling continued at a slower pace. Producers are holding back on sales amid recent price weakness. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, and Central American premiums are at or near record highs due to drought.
Sugar futures in New York and London were lower, with downward trends in both markets. Brazilian refineries are favoring ethanol over sugar production as higher petroleum prices support ethanol values. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rains, and Indian output is reduced after hot, dry conditions.
Cocoa futures in New York and London closed slightly lower, with daily trends turning down. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast raise concerns for 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample. Ivorian farmers warned poor rainfall could end the main crop early.
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