Key Takeaways
- • Wheat futures posted the steepest losses in the complex, with December CBT soft red winter down 35 1/2 cents and December KC hard red winter down 39 1/2 cents on the week, pressured by Putin's agreement to resume peace talks with the US and Ukraine.
- • December corn fell 18 1/4 cents on the week, while managed money cut its net long in corn futures and options by 84,620 contracts to 146,257 as of October 20.
- • The US corn harvest stood at 44% complete as of October 18, 8 points behind average, and 2026/27 corn export sales reached a marketing-year high of 1.527 MMT.
- • Hog prices weakened further, with the USDA pork cutout down $6.46 to $74.09/cwt, its lowest level since December 2020, and the CME Lean Hog Index at $72.15.
- • Cattle extended recent strength, with the CME Feeder Cattle Index up $1.55 to $345.09, even as wholesale Choice boxed beef fell $6.52 to $365.79/cwt.
Summary
Grain markets extended their losses in the week covered by Brugler Marketing & Management's Ag Marketing Report, with bulls struggling to find support across the complex. The report frames the period as a "Red October," describing persistent selling pressure on longs.
In corn, December futures lost 18 1/4 cents on the week after a midweek rally failed to extend. The US harvest was 44% complete as of October 18, lagging average by 8 points, while condition ratings held steady at 56% good/excellent. Weekly 2026/27 export sales totaled 1.527 MMT, a marketing-year high. Managed money cut its net long by 84,620 contracts to 146,257 as of October 20. On the ethanol side, production rose 29,000 barrels to 1.094 million barrels per day, and stocks increased 616,000 barrels to 24.558 million.
Wheat posted the largest losses. CBT soft red winter futures fell 35 1/2 cents, KC hard red winter dropped 39 1/2 cents, and HRS fell 35 cents for December. The report attributes the pressure to Russian President Putin's agreement to resume peace talks with the US and Ukraine, which could ease restrictions on Black Sea grain exports that have been severely limited for two months. Export sales for the week of October 8 were 239,627 MT, a six-week low, as buyers have yet to return to US supplies. Winter wheat planting stood at 63% complete, 6 points behind last year. Speculators added 18,096 contracts to their CBT wheat net short, reaching 51,134 contracts, while managed money in KC wheat trimmed its net long to 6,395 contracts.
Soybeans held up better, with December down only 4 3/4 cents on the week after late buying. December meal fell $11 and bean oil slipped 30 points. Export buyers were active, with 1.323 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations and 165,000 MT sold to Spain. The US harvest was 64% complete as of October 18, 1% behind average. Brazil planting reached 26% according to AgRural, slightly ahead of last year's 24% pace. Managed money reduced its soybean net long by 30,555 contracts to 206,936.
In livestock, cattle strength continued, with December live cattle up $2.77 and November feeders up $6.22. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose to $345.09. Boxed beef weakened, with Choice down $6.52 to $365.79/cwt and Select down 36 cents to $352.69. Weekly beef production fell 4.2% year over year to 487.3 million lbs, and NASS data showed September beef cold storage stocks of 400 million lbs. The Cattle on Feed report showed September placements up 12.07% from a year earlier at 1.777 million head, marketings down 6.62%, and October 1 on-feed inventory at 11.372 million head, down 0.4%.
Hogs weakened further, with December futures down $1.35 and the CME Lean Hog Index down $2.94 to $72.15 as of October 21. The pork cutout fell $6.46 to $74.09/cwt, its lowest since December 2020, and all primals declined. Pork cold storage stocks of 427.81 million lbs were 8.77% above the prior year.
Cotton December futures gained 20 points, with 41% of the crop harvested, 4 points ahead of normal, and export sales of 199,629 RB. Managed money added 767 contracts to its net long, reaching 66,466.
The report also notes upcoming events: the Fed decision on rates next week, the EIA and export sales reports, October feeder cattle and live cattle expirations, and first notice day for November soybeans.
In corn, December futures lost 18 1/4 cents on the week after a midweek rally failed to extend. The US harvest was 44% complete as of October 18, lagging average by 8 points, while condition ratings held steady at 56% good/excellent. Weekly 2026/27 export sales totaled 1.527 MMT, a marketing-year high. Managed money cut its net long by 84,620 contracts to 146,257 as of October 20. On the ethanol side, production rose 29,000 barrels to 1.094 million barrels per day, and stocks increased 616,000 barrels to 24.558 million.
Wheat posted the largest losses. CBT soft red winter futures fell 35 1/2 cents, KC hard red winter dropped 39 1/2 cents, and HRS fell 35 cents for December. The report attributes the pressure to Russian President Putin's agreement to resume peace talks with the US and Ukraine, which could ease restrictions on Black Sea grain exports that have been severely limited for two months. Export sales for the week of October 8 were 239,627 MT, a six-week low, as buyers have yet to return to US supplies. Winter wheat planting stood at 63% complete, 6 points behind last year. Speculators added 18,096 contracts to their CBT wheat net short, reaching 51,134 contracts, while managed money in KC wheat trimmed its net long to 6,395 contracts.
Soybeans held up better, with December down only 4 3/4 cents on the week after late buying. December meal fell $11 and bean oil slipped 30 points. Export buyers were active, with 1.323 MMT sold via daily announcements to China and unknown destinations and 165,000 MT sold to Spain. The US harvest was 64% complete as of October 18, 1% behind average. Brazil planting reached 26% according to AgRural, slightly ahead of last year's 24% pace. Managed money reduced its soybean net long by 30,555 contracts to 206,936.
In livestock, cattle strength continued, with December live cattle up $2.77 and November feeders up $6.22. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose to $345.09. Boxed beef weakened, with Choice down $6.52 to $365.79/cwt and Select down 36 cents to $352.69. Weekly beef production fell 4.2% year over year to 487.3 million lbs, and NASS data showed September beef cold storage stocks of 400 million lbs. The Cattle on Feed report showed September placements up 12.07% from a year earlier at 1.777 million head, marketings down 6.62%, and October 1 on-feed inventory at 11.372 million head, down 0.4%.
Hogs weakened further, with December futures down $1.35 and the CME Lean Hog Index down $2.94 to $72.15 as of October 21. The pork cutout fell $6.46 to $74.09/cwt, its lowest since December 2020, and all primals declined. Pork cold storage stocks of 427.81 million lbs were 8.77% above the prior year.
Cotton December futures gained 20 points, with 41% of the crop harvested, 4 points ahead of normal, and export sales of 199,629 RB. Managed money added 767 contracts to its net long, reaching 66,466.
The report also notes upcoming events: the Fed decision on rates next week, the EIA and export sales reports, October feeder cattle and live cattle expirations, and first notice day for November soybeans.
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