Key Takeaways
- • Private credit first-half 2026 final closes reached $190 billion, a 53% increase on H1 2025 and about 20% below the full-year 2025 total of $240 billion, according to With Intelligence.
- • Direct lending rebounded in Q2 with $73 billion of fund closes, lifting the H1 direct lending total to nearly $100 billion despite headlines around software lending and bankruptcies.
- • Mega-funds dominated: 59% of H1 capital went to funds over $5 billion, the highest share since With Intelligence's reporting began in 2023, and four $10 billion-plus funds raised $56 billion collectively.
- • Private wealth vehicles, notably non-traded BDCs, face heavy redemption pressure in 2026, with most large managers gating funds for two consecutive quarters.
- • Fundraising could exceed 2025's record $69 billion for Europe by year-end if Arcmont and ICG close expected mega-funds.
Summary
Capital remained concentrated in large vehicles. Funds above $5 billion captured 59% of first-half fundraising, the highest proportion since With Intelligence's reports began in 2023. Four mega-funds of $10 billion or more closed in H1, raising a combined $56 billion, or nearly one-third of all private debt capital raised. Hayfin's fifth flagship direct lending fund, at €15 billion ($17.5 billion), was the largest close, while Churchill Asset Management raised $16 billion for its Middle Market Senior Loan Fund V across a main fund, an evergreen vehicle and separate accounts. Sub-$1 billion funds accounted for just 6% of the total, down from 13% in 2023.
Geographic diversification continued. North America remained the largest single market with $71 billion in H1 final closes, but its share fell to 38% from nearly 50% in 2023 and 2024. Multi-region strategies grew to $70 billion, or 37% of the total. Europe's share declined to 23% from 29% last year, though absolute European closes reached $44 billion. Signs of recovery also appeared in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets strategies. With Arcmont and ICG both expected to close mega-funds this year, With Intelligence suggests full-year European fundraising could exceed 2025's record $69 billion.
The report also flagged strain in private wealth products. Non-traded BDCs have faced substantial redemption pressure in 2026, with most large managers forced to gate their funds for two consecutive quarters. '40 Act private credit assets declined slightly in Q1 due to redemptions and loan markdowns. Over the period since 2023, $837 billion has closed across 381 funds from 275 managers, with Ares Management the most active, closing nine funds totaling almost $68 billion. The 10 most active managers account for 37% of closed-end fund capital raised.
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