Key Takeaways
- • Hg's planned early-2026 IPO of Visma, a €19bn accounting software company positioned as London's "listing of the decade," has been shelved indefinitely due to AI-driven sell-offs in software stocks, a market phenomenon termed the "SaaSpocalypse."
- • Hg's portfolio exhibits elevated leverage and valuation risk: the London-listed investment trust carries average net debt of 7x earnings and valuations of 25x earnings as of December 2025, with shares down 26% year-to-date through May 2026.
- • A $5bn fund holding part of the Visma stake carries debt equal to approximately 20% of its value, amplifying downside exposure should asset writedowns materialize; most holdings in that fund declined in value prior to the recent software sector sell-off.
- • The Visma delay signals broader industry challenges for PE-backed software exits, raising strategic questions about Hg's portfolio construction and the private equity sector's ability to execute large liquidity events amid AI-driven market volatility.
Summary
Hg Capital, the London-based private equity powerhouse with over $100bn in assets under management, faces a critical test of its investment thesis as it delays the long-anticipated IPO of Visma, its flagship €19bn accounting software platform. The listing, scheduled for early 2026, represented a marquee event for both Hg and London's capital markets. The postponement follows sharp equity market sell-offs in software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks—colloquially termed the "SaaSpocalypse"—as advances in artificial intelligence have prompted Wall Street to reassess the predictability and durability of recurring software revenues that had previously commanded premium valuations.
The timing of the Visma delay carries particular significance for Hg's financial position and leverage profile. According to the most recent data as of December 2025, Hg's portfolio—as reflected in its London-listed investment trust—operates with substantial financial leverage: average net debt stands at more than 7x earnings, while valuations hold at approximately 25x earnings. A dedicated $5bn fund containing a material portion of the Visma stake carries debt obligations equaling roughly 20% of fund value, creating meaningful downside exposure in a scenario requiring asset valuations to be marked lower. Compounding this vulnerability, most holdings within that fund had already declined in value through 2025, before the broader software sector downturn accelerated in early 2026.
The broader implications extend beyond Hg alone. The Visma postponement underscores mounting challenges facing the private equity industry's ability to execute large-scale software exits in a market increasingly skeptical of AI-resilience narratives. With shares in Hg's investment trust declining 26% since the start of 2026, institutional investors are scrutinizing both the firm's portfolio strategy and its capacity to navigate technology sector volatility. The delay has prompted market participants—including Hg's limited partners, credit lenders, and competitors—to reassess Visma's competitive positioning against AI disruption and question whether the broader PE software thesis remains intact. An IPO is now unlikely in 2026, according to sources familiar with the matter, leaving Hg and other stakeholders to determine whether Visma can successfully weather the structural headwinds reshaping software valuations.
The timing of the Visma delay carries particular significance for Hg's financial position and leverage profile. According to the most recent data as of December 2025, Hg's portfolio—as reflected in its London-listed investment trust—operates with substantial financial leverage: average net debt stands at more than 7x earnings, while valuations hold at approximately 25x earnings. A dedicated $5bn fund containing a material portion of the Visma stake carries debt obligations equaling roughly 20% of fund value, creating meaningful downside exposure in a scenario requiring asset valuations to be marked lower. Compounding this vulnerability, most holdings within that fund had already declined in value through 2025, before the broader software sector downturn accelerated in early 2026.
The broader implications extend beyond Hg alone. The Visma postponement underscores mounting challenges facing the private equity industry's ability to execute large-scale software exits in a market increasingly skeptical of AI-resilience narratives. With shares in Hg's investment trust declining 26% since the start of 2026, institutional investors are scrutinizing both the firm's portfolio strategy and its capacity to navigate technology sector volatility. The delay has prompted market participants—including Hg's limited partners, credit lenders, and competitors—to reassess Visma's competitive positioning against AI disruption and question whether the broader PE software thesis remains intact. An IPO is now unlikely in 2026, according to sources familiar with the matter, leaving Hg and other stakeholders to determine whether Visma can successfully weather the structural headwinds reshaping software valuations.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.