Key Takeaways
- • Private equity titans are pivoting sharply from asset-light software plays toward HALO (hard assets, low obsolescence) investments in energy infrastructure, semiconductors, robotics, and physical AI buildout, signaling a structural reallocation of capital across PE portfolios.
- • Jeffrey Currie of Carlyle estimates approximately $10 trillion in capital could shift from asset-light to hard asset investments over the coming decade in the US alone, driven by the AI supercycle and digital infrastructure buildout.
- • Scott Kleinman of Apollo Global Management characterized the investment moment as a "global industrial renaissance," with trillions in capital required to fund digital infrastructure, energy transition, and supply chain regionalization triggered by geopolitical shifts and trade policy changes.
- • The SuperReturn conference in Berlin drew 5,000 attendees focused on energy transition, venture capital, and European tech sovereignty, reflecting institutional LP and GP interest in infrastructure and strategic resilience investments rather than traditional software and asset-light models.
- • Private equity fundraising and valuations remain under pressure industry-wide, but sentiment at SuperReturn centered on mega-IPO potential (citing SpaceX as catalyst) and the decades-long rotation toward physical asset ownership in critical infrastructure sectors.
Summary
At the SuperReturn conference in Berlin on June 17, 2026, private equity leaders articulated a fundamental shift in capital allocation strategy: away from asset-light business models and toward hard assets with durable utility. This pivot reflects broader macroeconomic and geopolitical forces reshaping private markets investment thesis across the institutional LP and GP community.
Scott Kleinman, CEO of Apollo Global Management, framed the investment environment as a "global industrial renaissance" requiring trillions of dollars in capital deployment. His commentary highlighted two interconnected drivers: first, the AI supercycle and its concurrent demand for digital infrastructure buildout; second, a structural reordering of global supply chains driven by shifts in trade policy and geopolitical tensions. Kleinman characterized this transformation as a reversal of the prior 40-year globalization trend, with the next five to ten years focused on "reglobalizing" supply chains around strategic resilience. He emphasized that private capital must serve as a primary vehicle for funding this transition.
Jeffrey Currie, senior advisor to Carlyle, quantified this rotation with a specific forecast: approximately $10 trillion in capital investments in the US alone could shift from asset-light categories—primarily software—toward physical infrastructure including energy, semiconductors, robotics, and other hard assets. Currie introduced the acronym HALO (hard assets, low obsolescence) to characterize the investment mantra gaining traction among conference attendees, signaling a decades-long capital rotation rather than a cyclical preference shift.
Despite continued headwinds in PE fundraising and valuation pressure, attendee sentiment focused on emerging opportunities in AI-driven infrastructure, energy transition, and defense-adjacent technologies. The 5,000-person conference drew senior LPs and GPs exploring trends in private equity, venture capital, private credit, and real assets, with dedicated programming on energy transition and European tech sovereignty. Industry participants cited the wave of mega-IPOs—notably SpaceX—as evidence that private markets are entering a new era characterized by larger, more infrastructure-focused exit opportunities tied to long-duration physical asset ownership.
Scott Kleinman, CEO of Apollo Global Management, framed the investment environment as a "global industrial renaissance" requiring trillions of dollars in capital deployment. His commentary highlighted two interconnected drivers: first, the AI supercycle and its concurrent demand for digital infrastructure buildout; second, a structural reordering of global supply chains driven by shifts in trade policy and geopolitical tensions. Kleinman characterized this transformation as a reversal of the prior 40-year globalization trend, with the next five to ten years focused on "reglobalizing" supply chains around strategic resilience. He emphasized that private capital must serve as a primary vehicle for funding this transition.
Jeffrey Currie, senior advisor to Carlyle, quantified this rotation with a specific forecast: approximately $10 trillion in capital investments in the US alone could shift from asset-light categories—primarily software—toward physical infrastructure including energy, semiconductors, robotics, and other hard assets. Currie introduced the acronym HALO (hard assets, low obsolescence) to characterize the investment mantra gaining traction among conference attendees, signaling a decades-long capital rotation rather than a cyclical preference shift.
Despite continued headwinds in PE fundraising and valuation pressure, attendee sentiment focused on emerging opportunities in AI-driven infrastructure, energy transition, and defense-adjacent technologies. The 5,000-person conference drew senior LPs and GPs exploring trends in private equity, venture capital, private credit, and real assets, with dedicated programming on energy transition and European tech sovereignty. Industry participants cited the wave of mega-IPOs—notably SpaceX—as evidence that private markets are entering a new era characterized by larger, more infrastructure-focused exit opportunities tied to long-duration physical asset ownership.
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