Key Takeaways
- • CEO confidence in global economic conditions has fallen to just over two-thirds, the weakest level since 2021, according to KPMG research cited in the article.
- • Nearly three-quarters of executives have already modified their growth plans in response to interconnected economic, geopolitical, and technological challenges.
- • Jean-Pierre Conte, managing partner of family office Lupine Crest Capital, advocates for decision-making frameworks built on distinguishing between acceptable risks and uncertainty that warrants caution, informed by decades managing volatile markets and high-stakes private equity investments.
- • About half of chief executives now plan more conservative strategies for 2025 and 2026, favoring incremental moves over capital-intensive commitments.
- • The most valued leadership capabilities in 2025 are agile decision-making (26%), transparent communication (24%), and effective risk identification and management (23%).
Summary
The operating environment for executives has shifted markedly into 2025, with traditional decision-making playbooks proving inadequate for navigating unprecedented uncertainty. KPMG's latest research reveals that CEO confidence regarding global economic conditions has deteriorated to just above two-thirds—the lowest sentiment recorded since 2021—as economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption create conditions where strategic assumptions require constant reassessment. This pressure has prompted nearly three-quarters of chief executives to modify their growth plans, reflecting the pervasiveness of interconnected challenges across sectors and geographies.
Jean-Pierre Conte, managing partner of San Francisco-based family office Lupine Crest Capital, brings three decades of experience navigating volatile markets and high-stakes private equity investments to bear on contemporary decision-making challenges. His approach emphasizes a critical distinction between risks that warrant acceptance and uncertainty that demands defensive positioning. Conte's framework, developed through multiple economic cycles and crises where capital preservation was paramount, argues that effective leadership in 2025 requires abandoning the assumption that decisions can rest on stable external conditions.
The strategic response has been marked. Approximately half of chief executives now plan more conservative approaches for 2025 and 2026, prioritizing incremental advances over bold, capital-intensive commitments. This shift reflects broader acknowledgment that decision velocity must be balanced against decision quality—a tension that Conte's work directly addresses. Recent research identifies the leadership capabilities most valued today: agile, quick decision-making ranks first at 26%, followed by transparent communication at 24% and the capacity to identify and manage risks effectively at 23%. These metrics underscore that in a period of structural uncertainty, organizations increasingly value leaders who can move decisively while maintaining clarity about downside scenarios and organizational alignment.
Jean-Pierre Conte, managing partner of San Francisco-based family office Lupine Crest Capital, brings three decades of experience navigating volatile markets and high-stakes private equity investments to bear on contemporary decision-making challenges. His approach emphasizes a critical distinction between risks that warrant acceptance and uncertainty that demands defensive positioning. Conte's framework, developed through multiple economic cycles and crises where capital preservation was paramount, argues that effective leadership in 2025 requires abandoning the assumption that decisions can rest on stable external conditions.
The strategic response has been marked. Approximately half of chief executives now plan more conservative approaches for 2025 and 2026, prioritizing incremental advances over bold, capital-intensive commitments. This shift reflects broader acknowledgment that decision velocity must be balanced against decision quality—a tension that Conte's work directly addresses. Recent research identifies the leadership capabilities most valued today: agile, quick decision-making ranks first at 26%, followed by transparent communication at 24% and the capacity to identify and manage risks effectively at 23%. These metrics underscore that in a period of structural uncertainty, organizations increasingly value leaders who can move decisively while maintaining clarity about downside scenarios and organizational alignment.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.