Key Takeaways
- • JPMorgan expects global M&A activity to moderate in 2027 after a robust 2026, according to Charlie Bouckaert, the bank's global head of M&A, in a November 6 interview with Fortune.
- • JPMorgan's third-quarter 2026 investment banking fees rose 14% year over year to $3 billion, with advisory fees up 32% to $1.2 billion, a pace that reduced deal volumes could make hard to sustain.
- • Private equity exits are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2027, with PitchBook data cited by Fortune showing 33,853 unsold PE investments as of September 30, 2026.
- • Continuation funds and secondary transactions could generate incremental advisory and financing mandates for JPMorgan and peers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Summary
JPMorgan (JPM) expects global mergers and acquisitions activity to moderate in 2027 following a strong performance earlier in 2026. In a November 6 interview with Fortune, Charlie Bouckaert, the bank's global head of M&A, said fewer large transactions could materialize next year, although bigger deals are likely to continue to dominate overall activity.
The slowdown poses a challenge to JPMorgan's investment banking fee growth. In the third quarter of 2026, the bank's IB fees increased 14% year over year to $3 billion, driven by a 32% jump in advisory fees to $1.2 billion. Reduced deal volumes could make sustaining that momentum difficult.
Against this softer M&A backdrop, pressure on private equity firms to monetize investments could create opportunities. Bouckaert expects exits to accelerate in the second half of 2027 as aging portfolios, approaching refinancing deadlines and investor liquidity demands push sponsors toward transactions. Per PitchBook data cited by Fortune, PE firms held 33,853 unsold investments as of September 30, 2026. Sponsors may also increasingly use continuation funds and secondary transactions rather than outright asset sales, which could generate further advisory and financing mandates for JPMorgan.
The analysis, published by Zacks Investment Research, concludes that while moderating M&A could temper JPMorgan's advisory revenue growth in 2027, rising PE exits and alternative liquidity transactions may partially offset the decline. The timing and execution of sponsor exits, along with uncertain transaction volumes, will determine whether incremental fees meaningfully cushion the slowdown.
Zacks also expects peers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to face similar dynamics, with slower M&A constraining advisory fee growth while exits, continuation funds and secondary transactions create new revenue opportunities. JPMorgan shares have gained 11.5% over the past six months and trade at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book of 3.13x, above the industry average. Zacks Consensus estimates call for 2026 earnings to rise 22.7% year over year and 2027 earnings to rise 3.7%, with 2026 estimates revised lower to $24.95 and 2027 estimates unchanged at $25.87. JPMorgan currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The slowdown poses a challenge to JPMorgan's investment banking fee growth. In the third quarter of 2026, the bank's IB fees increased 14% year over year to $3 billion, driven by a 32% jump in advisory fees to $1.2 billion. Reduced deal volumes could make sustaining that momentum difficult.
Against this softer M&A backdrop, pressure on private equity firms to monetize investments could create opportunities. Bouckaert expects exits to accelerate in the second half of 2027 as aging portfolios, approaching refinancing deadlines and investor liquidity demands push sponsors toward transactions. Per PitchBook data cited by Fortune, PE firms held 33,853 unsold investments as of September 30, 2026. Sponsors may also increasingly use continuation funds and secondary transactions rather than outright asset sales, which could generate further advisory and financing mandates for JPMorgan.
The analysis, published by Zacks Investment Research, concludes that while moderating M&A could temper JPMorgan's advisory revenue growth in 2027, rising PE exits and alternative liquidity transactions may partially offset the decline. The timing and execution of sponsor exits, along with uncertain transaction volumes, will determine whether incremental fees meaningfully cushion the slowdown.
Zacks also expects peers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to face similar dynamics, with slower M&A constraining advisory fee growth while exits, continuation funds and secondary transactions create new revenue opportunities. JPMorgan shares have gained 11.5% over the past six months and trade at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book of 3.13x, above the industry average. Zacks Consensus estimates call for 2026 earnings to rise 22.7% year over year and 2027 earnings to rise 3.7%, with 2026 estimates revised lower to $24.95 and 2027 estimates unchanged at $25.87. JPMorgan currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.