Key Takeaways
- • Charlie Bouckaert, head of JPMorgan's global Advisory and M&A business, told TOKENPOST in a Nov. 6 interview that he expects dealmaking to slow in 2027.
- • Bouckaert sees some private equity sponsors moving toward exits or other liquidity options in the second half of 2027, driven by aging portfolios, investor return demands and refinancing decisions in 2028 or 2029.
- • Private equity's unsold portfolio is estimated at about 32,000 companies valued at $3.8 trillion, and average holding periods for exited buyout companies rose to seven years in 2024 from 6.3 years in 2021 and five years in 2010.
- • Continuation vehicles accounted for less than 10% of private equity exit value, so sponsors may increasingly rely on continuation funds and secondary transactions.
Summary
Charlie Bouckaert, who leads JPMorgan's global Advisory and M&A business, said in a Nov. 6 interview that he expects dealmaking to slow in 2027. He also said investor demands could push private equity firms to seek liquidity later in the year, with some sponsors moving toward exits or other liquidity options in the second half of 2027. Aging portfolio companies, investor demands for returns and refinancing decisions approaching in 2028 or 2029 could contribute to that pressure, according to Bouckaert. He did not estimate how many firms might pursue liquidity or the value of potential exits.
Bouckaert emphasized the structural importance of liquidity for the asset class: "Ultimately, the private equity business model is reliant on exiting and returning capital to LPs." Sponsors may use continuation funds or secondary transactions to return capital. A continuation fund transfers an investment into a new fund managed by the same sponsor, giving existing investors an opportunity to cash out, while in a secondary transaction investors sell their stakes to new buyers. Continuation vehicles represented less than 10% of private equity exit value.
The scale of the backlog is significant. Private equity's unsold portfolio was estimated at about 32,000 companies valued at $3.8 trillion. Holding periods have also lengthened: the global average for buyout companies reaching an exit was seven years in 2024, compared with 6.3 years in 2021 and five years in 2010. These figures cover buyout companies that exited in each year, not all companies still held by private equity funds.
Bouckaert expects 2027 deal activity to resemble the recent slower stretch, with somewhat fewer large transactions and activity remaining concentrated in bigger deals. This contrasts with his July 2026 description of announced M&A volume in the first half of the year as a record, with activity expected to stay elevated through year-end. His latest outlook points to a slower pace the following year.
Bouckaert emphasized the structural importance of liquidity for the asset class: "Ultimately, the private equity business model is reliant on exiting and returning capital to LPs." Sponsors may use continuation funds or secondary transactions to return capital. A continuation fund transfers an investment into a new fund managed by the same sponsor, giving existing investors an opportunity to cash out, while in a secondary transaction investors sell their stakes to new buyers. Continuation vehicles represented less than 10% of private equity exit value.
The scale of the backlog is significant. Private equity's unsold portfolio was estimated at about 32,000 companies valued at $3.8 trillion. Holding periods have also lengthened: the global average for buyout companies reaching an exit was seven years in 2024, compared with 6.3 years in 2021 and five years in 2010. These figures cover buyout companies that exited in each year, not all companies still held by private equity funds.
Bouckaert expects 2027 deal activity to resemble the recent slower stretch, with somewhat fewer large transactions and activity remaining concentrated in bigger deals. This contrasts with his July 2026 description of announced M&A volume in the first half of the year as a record, with activity expected to stay elevated through year-end. His latest outlook points to a slower pace the following year.
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