Key Takeaways
- • Thoma Bravo, the world's largest software-focused private equity firm managing over $181 billion in assets, is facing a rare operational stumble with its $6.4 billion acquisition of software company Medallia, with lenders including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management now positioned to assume control of the asset.
- • Lincoln International, a Chicago-based midmarket M&A advisory firm specializing in sell-side assignments to private equity sponsors, is preparing to conduct a rare investment banking IPO, demonstrating strong growth with pro-forma 2025 revenues of $843 million compared to $57 million in client revenues during 2008.
- • Lincoln International claims the number two position as a sell-side advisor to private equity firms over the past three years and reports completion of more than 435 transactions, positioning itself as a "global independent investment banking advisory firm focused on the private capital markets."
- • The Medallia situation raises questions about whether distressed outcomes in leveraged buyouts represent isolated incidents or early warning signs of broader stress in the private credit market, historically characterized by extended periods of opacity before underlying problems surface.
Summary
Thoma Bravo, the world's largest software-focused investment firm with more than $181 billion in assets under management, is navigating a significant operational challenge surrounding its $6.4 billion acquisition of software company Medallia. According to the primary source, the firm has refused to inject fresh capital into the struggling asset, and lenders including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management are now preparing to assume control. This marks a rare operational stumble for co-founder Orlando Bravo, raising broader questions about the health of the private credit market, which historically allows distressed situations to remain obscured from public scrutiny until problems become acute.
Separately, Lincoln International, a midmarket Chicago-based investment banking partnership specializing in M&A advisory to private equity sponsors, is pursuing an IPO—a rare capital markets event for an independent investment bank. According to its prospectus filing, Lincoln positions itself as "a global independent investment banking advisory firm focused on the private capital markets." The firm's financial trajectory underscores the robust demand for M&A advisory services targeting private equity: pro-forma revenues reached $843 million in 2025, compared to just $57 million in client revenues during the 2008 financial crisis. Lincoln claims the number two position as a sell-side advisor to private equity firms over the past three years and reports completion of more than 435 transactions. The IPO provides Lincoln with liquidity and enhanced market visibility—benefits typically sought by successful private markets service providers as fundraising and deal activity intensify.
The contrast between Thoma Bravo's distressed Medallia position and Lincoln International's strong financial performance illustrates divergent outcomes within the private markets ecosystem. While Thoma Bravo's refusal to provide additional capital to an underperforming portfolio company signals potential stress in large-ticket software acquisitions and the broader leveraged finance market, the robust growth and IPO readiness of M&A advisory firms suggests continued institutional appetite for transaction services. For institutional investors monitoring private credit exposure and private equity performance, the Medallia situation warrants attention as a potential indicator of emerging stress in previously resilient private markets.
Separately, Lincoln International, a midmarket Chicago-based investment banking partnership specializing in M&A advisory to private equity sponsors, is pursuing an IPO—a rare capital markets event for an independent investment bank. According to its prospectus filing, Lincoln positions itself as "a global independent investment banking advisory firm focused on the private capital markets." The firm's financial trajectory underscores the robust demand for M&A advisory services targeting private equity: pro-forma revenues reached $843 million in 2025, compared to just $57 million in client revenues during the 2008 financial crisis. Lincoln claims the number two position as a sell-side advisor to private equity firms over the past three years and reports completion of more than 435 transactions. The IPO provides Lincoln with liquidity and enhanced market visibility—benefits typically sought by successful private markets service providers as fundraising and deal activity intensify.
The contrast between Thoma Bravo's distressed Medallia position and Lincoln International's strong financial performance illustrates divergent outcomes within the private markets ecosystem. While Thoma Bravo's refusal to provide additional capital to an underperforming portfolio company signals potential stress in large-ticket software acquisitions and the broader leveraged finance market, the robust growth and IPO readiness of M&A advisory firms suggests continued institutional appetite for transaction services. For institutional investors monitoring private credit exposure and private equity performance, the Medallia situation warrants attention as a potential indicator of emerging stress in previously resilient private markets.
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