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When Will Public and Private Equity Markets Finally Converge?

Reported by Morningstar
Oct 8, 2024· 3 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • Mutual funds holding private company equities would have generated superior returns by allocating those capital positions to public markets over the past 10 years, according to Morningstar research, signaling structural performance headwinds for direct private equity exposure in retail-accessible vehicles.
  • • Liquidity constraints severely limit trading activity in private holdings: mutual funds buy or sell less than 1% of private company shares per quarter on average, with most activity driven by new financing rounds rather than secondary market trades.
  • • Current industry enthusiasm for mass-marketed private equity vehicles—including interval funds and closed-end ETFs—faces a challenging path forward given the illiquidity of direct private company equity investments and their historical underperformance relative to public equities.
  • • Regulatory constraints cap open-end mutual fund exposure to illiquid private holdings at 15% maximum, whereas closed-end structures like interval funds can theoretically construct portfolios entirely of private companies, creating a structural distinction in product design.
  • • The convergence of public and private equity markets through retail-accessible vehicles remains conceptually attractive but practically problematic due to the fundamental illiquidity of venture capital market structures.
Summary
The financial services industry is pursuing an ambitious agenda to democratize private equity by packaging public and private assets into single vehicles accessible to retail investors. Asset managers argue that private company equity has remained inaccessible to ordinary investors for too long and are developing new structures to bridge that gap. However, recent Morningstar research examining a decade of mutual fund performance suggests this convergence strategy carries significant risks that may ultimately disappoint both institutional and retail investors.

The research findings are decidedly negative: mutual funds that have held private company equities over the past 10 years would have achieved better returns by allocating those same capital amounts to public markets instead. This underperformance raises fundamental questions about the viability of mass-marketed closed-end vehicles, including interval funds and exchange-traded closed-end funds, that are designed primarily to invest directly in private company equities.

The core constraint undermining performance and liquidity is straightforward: private company shares are extremely difficult to trade. Morningstar's analysis shows that mutual funds transact in less than 1% of their private company share holdings per quarter. The majority of this limited activity stems from participation in new financing rounds rather than true secondary market trading, which remains rare. This structural illiquidity reflects inherent characteristics of the venture capital market itself and creates persistent challenges for any public vehicle attempting to manage private portfolios efficiently.

Current regulatory frameworks also shape the landscape. Open-end mutual funds face SEC-imposed limits restricting illiquid holdings to a maximum of 15% of portfolio assets, a constraint designed to protect investor liquidity. Closed-end structures like interval funds operate under different regulatory regimes and theoretically can hold 100% private company equities, yet this structural flexibility does not resolve the underlying trading difficulties that plagued mutual fund performance.

The findings suggest that despite the industry's enthusiasm for public-private convergence, the practical obstacles—particularly extreme illiquidity and demonstrated historical underperformance—create a "challenging path forward" for any retail-focused fund structure betting primarily on direct private equity investment returns.

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Sources

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Morningstar When Will Public and Private Equity Markets Finally Converge?