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Who Can Afford to Pay $11B for a Private Equity-Backed Company? The Answer Is Changing.

Reported by Institutionalinvestor
Sep 24, 2024· 3 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • The SaaS market is projected to reach $247.2 billion in 2024, up from $102.1 billion in 2019, representing a 19% compound annual growth rate and demonstrating sustained secular demand independent of pandemic-era valuation distortions.
  • • Strategic buyers and private equity firms are increasingly capable of deploying $11 billion+ to acquire software companies, expanding the pool of viable acquirers beyond traditional constraints and reshaping M&A dynamics in enterprise software.
  • • Software spending is expected to grow roughly twice as fast as other tech categories and account for more than half of all tech growth through 2027, establishing software as the foundational infrastructure for modern business operations.
  • • Private equity firms like Thoma Bravo have positioned themselves as major players in large software acquisitions, treating software not as a discrete sector but as the structural backbone underpinning business transformation across all industries.
  • • Recent market moderation in SaaS revenue growth reflects macroeconomic uncertainty and the industry's navigation of AI integration, yet these cyclical pressures do not alter the underlying multi-decade growth trajectory.
Summary
The enterprise software market has fundamentally shifted the competitive landscape for mega-deal acquisitions, with the pool of buyers capable of deploying $11 billion for a private equity-backed software company expanding significantly. According to Institutional Investor, the deals now characterizing the "software big leagues" are measured in billions, with stakes high enough to reshape entire sectors. This transformation reflects a strategic recognition that software has become the foundational infrastructure upon which modern businesses operate, rather than a discrete sectoral opportunity.

The market fundamentals supporting this shift are substantial and durable. The SaaS market is projected to reach approximately $247.2 billion in 2024, compared to $102.1 billion in 2019 ($125.2 billion inflation-adjusted), translating to an average compound annual growth rate of roughly 19% over the period. Critically, the primary source distinguishes current valuations from the pandemic-era bubble of 2021, noting that 2024 revenue growth moderation reflects genuine macroeconomic headwinds and the industry-wide transition to AI-integrated products—not a fundamental erosion of demand. Software spending is projected to grow approximately twice as fast as other categories such as financial services and healthcare technology, and is expected to account for more than half of all technology growth through 2027.

Private equity firms operating in the software sector have systematized their approach to large acquisitions since 2000, building institutional capability to execute at scale. Firms like Thoma Bravo exemplify this evolution, viewing software acquisitions as vehicles to supercharge innovation, growth, and profitability across portfolio companies. The expanding buyer universe—now including both strategic acquirers and increasingly sophisticated PE sponsors—reflects recognition that software represents not a cyclical opportunity but a secular, multi-decade expansion with accelerating cash requirements for competitive entry.

The changing buyer landscape has direct implications for exit timing and valuation negotiation in software M&A. As the capital requirements to acquire billion-dollar software businesses have grown, the number of qualified acquirers with sufficient dry powder and strategic motivation has expanded correspondingly, potentially affecting deal competition, pricing, and terms in this critical sector.

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Sources

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AlphaMaven summarised this story from the reporting below. Each link opens the original article.

Institutionalinvestor Who Can Afford to Pay $11B for a Private Equity-Backed Company? The Answer Is Changing.