Key Takeaways
- • Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson has driven a 91% rally in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) by positioning the online real estate company as "the next Carvana," leveraging his track record of calling a 13-year comeback in Carvana stock from $25 to above $350.
- • Jackson's bull thesis targets Opendoor stock at $82 within a few years, based on consensus estimates of $11.6 billion in fiscal 2029 sales (the company previously achieved $15.6 billion in fiscal 2022) and applying a 5x enterprise value-to-sales multiple (its 2021 peak multiple) while assuming zero net debt.
- • Opendoor's stock surged 43% in a single session with call volumes hitting record highs (623,618 contracts versus a 20-day average of 35,000), driven by Jackson's bullish thesis posted on X and amplified on r/WallStreetBets, as retail investors and short-sellers engage heavily.
- • The company, which went public via SPAC in late 2020 led by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, has recovered from an all-time low of $0.50 in June 2024 to trade at $1.49, having collapsed from its February 2021 intraday peak of $39.
- • Jackson's credibility stems from his early Carvana call in June 2023, when the stock was widely dismissed at $25; the subsequent recovery has amplified attention to his current thesis on Opendoor as a similar turnaround candidate in the iBuying space.
Summary
Eric Jackson, founder of Toronto-based hedge fund EMJ Capital, has emerged as a high-profile bull on Opendoor Technologies, architecting a 91% weekly rally in the online real estate company's stock. Jackson's endorsement carries particular weight given his prescient call on Carvana in June 2023, when the used-car retailer was trading at $25 and widely dismissed by the market; Carvana subsequently recovered to trade above $350, vindicating his contrarian thesis and establishing Jackson as a credible analyst of distressed, innovation-focused consumer businesses.
Jackson's current Opendoor thesis, unpacked in a detailed post on X, positions the iBuying platform as a multi-year turnaround opportunity with a target price of $82. His bull case rests on several pillars: consensus estimates for Opendoor's fiscal 2029 revenue total $11.6 billion (rounded to $12 billion by Jackson), representing a return to the sales levels the company actually achieved in fiscal 2022 when it generated $15.6 billion in revenue. Applying a 5x enterprise value-to-sales multiple—the company's peak valuation multiple from 2021—and assuming the firm reaches zero net debt, Jackson arrives at his $82 target, implying significant upside from current levels near $1.49.
The market response has been dramatic and driven heavily by retail participation. Opendoor's stock rallied 43% in a single trading session this week, with call option volumes hitting record highs of 623,618 contracts on Wednesday alone, compared to a 20-day average of less than 35,000. The surge reflects both Jackson's influence on social media and intense activity on r/WallStreetBets, where retail traders have amplified discussion of the stock. The company remains heavily shorted, adding a potential squeeze dynamic to the move.
Opendoor's trajectory underscores both the opportunity and risk embedded in Jackson's thesis. The firm went public in late 2020 via SPAC merger led by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya and quickly scaled its iBuying operations, reaching an intraday peak of $39 in February 2021. The subsequent collapse—driven by operational challenges, market headwinds, and competition from Zillow Offers—sent the stock plummeting to $0.50 by June 2024. Jackson's bull case implicitly assumes the company has solved its operational and capital efficiency problems and that the iBuying model can achieve profitability and scale comparable to the consensus 2029 estimates.
Jackson's current Opendoor thesis, unpacked in a detailed post on X, positions the iBuying platform as a multi-year turnaround opportunity with a target price of $82. His bull case rests on several pillars: consensus estimates for Opendoor's fiscal 2029 revenue total $11.6 billion (rounded to $12 billion by Jackson), representing a return to the sales levels the company actually achieved in fiscal 2022 when it generated $15.6 billion in revenue. Applying a 5x enterprise value-to-sales multiple—the company's peak valuation multiple from 2021—and assuming the firm reaches zero net debt, Jackson arrives at his $82 target, implying significant upside from current levels near $1.49.
The market response has been dramatic and driven heavily by retail participation. Opendoor's stock rallied 43% in a single trading session this week, with call option volumes hitting record highs of 623,618 contracts on Wednesday alone, compared to a 20-day average of less than 35,000. The surge reflects both Jackson's influence on social media and intense activity on r/WallStreetBets, where retail traders have amplified discussion of the stock. The company remains heavily shorted, adding a potential squeeze dynamic to the move.
Opendoor's trajectory underscores both the opportunity and risk embedded in Jackson's thesis. The firm went public in late 2020 via SPAC merger led by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya and quickly scaled its iBuying operations, reaching an intraday peak of $39 in February 2021. The subsequent collapse—driven by operational challenges, market headwinds, and competition from Zillow Offers—sent the stock plummeting to $0.50 by June 2024. Jackson's bull case implicitly assumes the company has solved its operational and capital efficiency problems and that the iBuying model can achieve profitability and scale comparable to the consensus 2029 estimates.
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