Key Takeaways
- • Yardi Matrix data shows 274.4 million square feet of industrial starts in the first three quarters of 2026, with the year potentially among the highest for starts in recent years, after 342.1 million square feet in 2025.
- • Orange County posted the largest September pipeline increase of any Western market (47%), led by the 191,894-square-foot Goodman Commerce Center Cypress Building 3, and its vacancy rate fell 160 bps year-over-year.
- • Dallas (7.9%) and Miami (7.5%) led 12-month in-place industrial rent growth, while the national vacancy rate rose to 9.7% in September, up 40 bps month-over-month.
- • Chicago completed $4.4 billion in year-to-date industrial sales, second only to Dallas at $5 billion, with a single $750 million data center purchase in Elk Grove Village accounting for 17% of that volume.
- • Power availability, construction input costs (up 11.9% year-over-year) and tariff-driven metal price increases are constraining project feasibility and development budgets.
Summary
Available coverage of Orange County's industrial market centers on development activity rather than a specific property sale, so the location and building-size thesis of this story can only be assessed in part. According to Yardi Matrix data cited in a national October 2026 industrial report, Orange County's overall pipeline is relatively small compared with other Western markets, but it recorded the strongest September increase in the region at 47%. The Goodman Commerce Center Cypress Building 3, at 191,894 square feet, is the main project cited. Orange County vacancy rates fell 160 bps year-over-year, according to the same data.
Nationally, the report shows the industrial pipeline expanding after a cooldown that bottomed in 2024 at 306.8 million square feet of starts. Owner-occupied projects accounted for 76.1 million square feet of starts in the first three quarters of 2026, roughly 27% of activity, according to Yardi Matrix. Average in-place rents reached $9.33 per square foot in September, up 5.3% annually, while the premium on new leases narrowed to $0.80.
Transaction activity was concentrated in a handful of metros. Yardi Matrix reports roughly $74.4 billion in industrial sales through September at an average price of $140 per square foot. Chicago's $4.4 billion in year-to-date volume ranked second to Dallas, and Yardi noted that outlier transactions such as the GI Partners data center purchase materially shift average pricing.
Developers face headwinds that could temper supply growth. Yardi Research's Peter Kolaczynski said power access has become "the factor that makes or breaks projects," and a Site Selectors Guild survey found 79% of respondents viewed power constraints as capable of determining project feasibility. Producer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed non-residential construction input prices up 11.9% year-over-year, and aluminum, steel, and copper costs have risen 25% to 30%, according to the report.
Nationally, the report shows the industrial pipeline expanding after a cooldown that bottomed in 2024 at 306.8 million square feet of starts. Owner-occupied projects accounted for 76.1 million square feet of starts in the first three quarters of 2026, roughly 27% of activity, according to Yardi Matrix. Average in-place rents reached $9.33 per square foot in September, up 5.3% annually, while the premium on new leases narrowed to $0.80.
Transaction activity was concentrated in a handful of metros. Yardi Matrix reports roughly $74.4 billion in industrial sales through September at an average price of $140 per square foot. Chicago's $4.4 billion in year-to-date volume ranked second to Dallas, and Yardi noted that outlier transactions such as the GI Partners data center purchase materially shift average pricing.
Developers face headwinds that could temper supply growth. Yardi Research's Peter Kolaczynski said power access has become "the factor that makes or breaks projects," and a Site Selectors Guild survey found 79% of respondents viewed power constraints as capable of determining project feasibility. Producer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed non-residential construction input prices up 11.9% year-over-year, and aluminum, steel, and copper costs have risen 25% to 30%, according to the report.
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