Key Takeaways
- • Canada's 10-year government bond yield eased to 3.87% on October 13, 2026, down 0.01 percentage points on the session and 0.09 points over the month, according to Trading Economics, though still 0.71 points above a year earlier.
- • The Canadian dollar strengthened on the day, with USD/CAD down 0.44% to 1.42183 in Trading Economics quotes, alongside the decline in domestic bond yields.
- • The 10-year yield had reached a three-year high above 4% on October 1 before retreating after weak September employment data showed a loss of 68,300 jobs versus expectations for a 7,000 gain.
- • The Bank of Canada policy rate stood at 2.25% (September 2026) and inflation at 3.00% (August 2026); Trading Economics expects the 10-year yield at 3.82% by quarter-end and 3.63% in 12 months.
Summary
On October 13, 2026, Canada's 10-year government bond yield eased to 3.87%, a 0.01 percentage-point decline from the prior session, according to Trading Economics. Over the same period the Canadian dollar gained, with USD/CAD falling 0.44% to 1.42183. Per the same data, the 2-year yield stood at 3.20%, the 5-year at 3.56%, and the 30-year at 4.22%.
The move follows a sharp reversal from earlier highs. Canada's 10-year yield rose above 4% on October 1, a three-year high, as a global bond selloff driven by US Treasuries gathered pace. Reports described the US 10-year benchmark as climbing to its highest level since 2002, while elevated oil prices, with Brent near $106 and WTI around $95 in the quoted data, added to inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations. Domestically, September employment fell by 68,300 against expectations for a 7,000 gain, and the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 point to 6.5%. Real GDP rose 0.2% in August after being essentially unchanged in July. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would hold rates. A US ban on various Canadian imports also took effect, adding to growth concerns.
Trading Economics models and analyst expectations put the 10-year yield at 3.82% by the end of the quarter and 3.63% in twelve months. The outlook reflects tension between energy-driven price pressures, with inflation at 3.00%, and a softening labour market, with the policy rate at 2.25%. The original article could not be retrieved, so this summary draws on publisher market data and related coverage.
The move follows a sharp reversal from earlier highs. Canada's 10-year yield rose above 4% on October 1, a three-year high, as a global bond selloff driven by US Treasuries gathered pace. Reports described the US 10-year benchmark as climbing to its highest level since 2002, while elevated oil prices, with Brent near $106 and WTI around $95 in the quoted data, added to inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations. Domestically, September employment fell by 68,300 against expectations for a 7,000 gain, and the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 point to 6.5%. Real GDP rose 0.2% in August after being essentially unchanged in July. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would hold rates. A US ban on various Canadian imports also took effect, adding to growth concerns.
Trading Economics models and analyst expectations put the 10-year yield at 3.82% by the end of the quarter and 3.63% in twelve months. The outlook reflects tension between energy-driven price pressures, with inflation at 3.00%, and a softening labour market, with the policy rate at 2.25%. The original article could not be retrieved, so this summary draws on publisher market data and related coverage.
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