Key Takeaways
- • Bessemer Venture Partners projects India's digital economy could reach a trillion-dollar opportunity over the next decade, roughly five times the value created in the last ten years, which it says was close to $200 billion.
- • E-commerce in India is forecast to grow from $123 billion in 2024 to $300 billion by 2030, with e-commerce users expected to rise from 238 million in 2024 to 500 million by 2030.
- • Quick commerce and new-age direct-to-consumer brands are identified as the two key opportunities for the next decade, with retail media emerging as a third major digital advertising player alongside Google and Meta.
- • Content and gaming are growing fast: India's gaming market is projected to reach $7.5 billion by 2028 from $3.1 billion in 2023, and online video subscriptions are forecast to hit $3 billion by 2026.
- • Bessemer says durable consumer businesses will depend on mastering four metrics: TAM, CAC, contribution margin, and flatline retention.
Summary
Bessemer Venture Partners' report, "Click, Watch, Shop: The Consumer Opportunity in India," argues that India is entering a new era of consumer innovation. The firm states that the last decade of smartphone adoption, e-commerce, UPI payments and rising incomes produced an economy worth almost $200 billion, with companies such as Swiggy, Flipkart and UrbanCompany cited as examples. Bessemer expects the coming decade to deliver a trillion-dollar digital opportunity, and notes that more than 60% of India's economy is consumer-led, so a large share of that value should accrue to consumer startups.
The report attributes this growth to three tailwinds: affordable mobile data (around $0.15 per GB), a young population (median age 28.8 years in a country of 1.48 billion people in 2023), and digital public infrastructure. Per capita discretionary income is cited at roughly $2,500 in 2024, with a forecast of $4,000 by 2030. UPI transaction volumes grew from 93,000 in August 2016 to 18.3 billion in March 2025. Bessemer also points to the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) and the Open Credit Enablement Network (OCEN) as future infrastructure expected to broaden e-commerce and lending access.
Online commerce is central to the thesis. According to the report, Indian e-commerce grew from $30 billion in 2020 to $123 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $300 billion by 2030. Quick commerce platforms including BigBasket, Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and Zepto have pushed rapid delivery into the mainstream, prompting Amazon and Flipkart to adapt. Bessemer also highlights vertical q-commerce challengers such as Snabbit, Swish and Slikk, while acknowledging open questions on the profitability of the channel. Retail media is described as a high-margin revenue source, with brands potentially spending 25-30% of sales on advertising.
On content, the report cites 3.6x growth in daily active users on short-form video platforms over five years, and projects the online video subscription market to grow from $700 million in 2020 to $3 billion by 2026. It expects virtual tipping to reach $700-800 million by 2029. Gaming is projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2018 to $3.1 billion in 2023 and $7.5 billion by 2028, driven largely by in-app purchases. Bessemer names KukuFM, Seekho, Clarity, SpeakX and Stage as companies capitalizing on these trends. The report also says AI is reshaping commerce, content, healthcare, education and financial services, and that businesses not adopting it risk falling behind.
The report attributes this growth to three tailwinds: affordable mobile data (around $0.15 per GB), a young population (median age 28.8 years in a country of 1.48 billion people in 2023), and digital public infrastructure. Per capita discretionary income is cited at roughly $2,500 in 2024, with a forecast of $4,000 by 2030. UPI transaction volumes grew from 93,000 in August 2016 to 18.3 billion in March 2025. Bessemer also points to the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) and the Open Credit Enablement Network (OCEN) as future infrastructure expected to broaden e-commerce and lending access.
Online commerce is central to the thesis. According to the report, Indian e-commerce grew from $30 billion in 2020 to $123 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $300 billion by 2030. Quick commerce platforms including BigBasket, Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and Zepto have pushed rapid delivery into the mainstream, prompting Amazon and Flipkart to adapt. Bessemer also highlights vertical q-commerce challengers such as Snabbit, Swish and Slikk, while acknowledging open questions on the profitability of the channel. Retail media is described as a high-margin revenue source, with brands potentially spending 25-30% of sales on advertising.
On content, the report cites 3.6x growth in daily active users on short-form video platforms over five years, and projects the online video subscription market to grow from $700 million in 2020 to $3 billion by 2026. It expects virtual tipping to reach $700-800 million by 2029. Gaming is projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2018 to $3.1 billion in 2023 and $7.5 billion by 2028, driven largely by in-app purchases. Bessemer names KukuFM, Seekho, Clarity, SpeakX and Stage as companies capitalizing on these trends. The report also says AI is reshaping commerce, content, healthcare, education and financial services, and that businesses not adopting it risk falling behind.
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