Key Takeaways
- • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new mines by 2050, with 44 of those needed to meet demand growth between 2040 and 2050 alone.
- • Global lithium demand is forecast to reach about 7 million tonnes LCE in 2050, up 4.8 million tonnes from 2.11 million tonnes LCE in 2026, with 76% driven by electric vehicles.
- • Meeting base-case demand requires more than US$100 billion of mine investment before any contribution from recycling, rising to more than US$150 billion and around 180 mines in Benchmark's upside scenario.
- • Australia's share of mined lithium supply is forecast to fall from 29% in 2026 to 20% by 2050, while North America's rises from 1.7% to 13% and Europe's reaches 5.5% of mined supply.
- • Benchmark expects recycling to supply almost half of lithium by 2050, but Cameron Perks warned that sustaining investment through price cycles while competing with AI, defence and other energy transition uses is the industry's biggest challenge.
Summary
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects that the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines between now and 2050 to keep pace with rising demand for the critical mineral. Benchmark forecasts global lithium demand will reach roughly 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, an increase of 4.8 million tonnes from 2.11 million tonnes LCE in 2026. At an average mine size of 36,000 tonnes LCE, that growth equates to a new mine roughly every two months over 24 years.
Batteries accounted for 92% of lithium demand in 2026, up from around 70% in 2020. Electric vehicles represent 55% of current demand and are forecast to reach 76% by 2050 as rapid growth in stationary storage moderates. Benchmark expects stationary storage demand, which has grown more than 60% a year over the past two years, to slow to around 5% a year through the end of the decade, according to Perks.
Supply geography is forecast to shift considerably. Australia is expected to be the largest producer of mined lithium in 2026 with 29% of supply, but its share is projected to fall to 20% by 2050, even with brownfield expansions such as PLS's P2000 factored in around 2030. Perks said many Australian mines will be depleted by 2050, that price volatility has made financiers hesitant and that the regulatory burden is growing. China's share is expected to remain near 25%. North American mined supply is forecast to rise from 1.7% in 2026 to 13% by 2050, while Europe, which currently supplies less than 1% of mined lithium despite accounting for 7% of cell production demand, is projected to supply 5.5% of mined lithium by 2050 against 8% of demand. Perks noted that many large European and North American projects require novel technology or face environmental and community opposition, leading to delays and higher costs.
The estimate rests on Benchmark's base case. In its upside scenario, demand would approach 9 million tonnes LCE, requiring around 180 new mines and well over US$150 billion of investment. Recycling is the largest variable: Benchmark forecasts it will account for almost half of lithium supply by 2050, and its capex analysis puts the investment needed for 2040 demand at around US$64 billion. Perks cautioned that recycling is constrained by how quickly batteries reach end of life and must still compete with mining on cost.
Batteries accounted for 92% of lithium demand in 2026, up from around 70% in 2020. Electric vehicles represent 55% of current demand and are forecast to reach 76% by 2050 as rapid growth in stationary storage moderates. Benchmark expects stationary storage demand, which has grown more than 60% a year over the past two years, to slow to around 5% a year through the end of the decade, according to Perks.
Supply geography is forecast to shift considerably. Australia is expected to be the largest producer of mined lithium in 2026 with 29% of supply, but its share is projected to fall to 20% by 2050, even with brownfield expansions such as PLS's P2000 factored in around 2030. Perks said many Australian mines will be depleted by 2050, that price volatility has made financiers hesitant and that the regulatory burden is growing. China's share is expected to remain near 25%. North American mined supply is forecast to rise from 1.7% in 2026 to 13% by 2050, while Europe, which currently supplies less than 1% of mined lithium despite accounting for 7% of cell production demand, is projected to supply 5.5% of mined lithium by 2050 against 8% of demand. Perks noted that many large European and North American projects require novel technology or face environmental and community opposition, leading to delays and higher costs.
The estimate rests on Benchmark's base case. In its upside scenario, demand would approach 9 million tonnes LCE, requiring around 180 new mines and well over US$150 billion of investment. Recycling is the largest variable: Benchmark forecasts it will account for almost half of lithium supply by 2050, and its capex analysis puts the investment needed for 2040 demand at around US$64 billion. Perks cautioned that recycling is constrained by how quickly batteries reach end of life and must still compete with mining on cost.
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