Key Takeaways
- • Monarch Networth Capital CEO Gaurav Bhandari forecasts the Nifty 50 could reach fresh all-time highs of 26,000-26,500 within four to five months, according to a note cited by Mint.
- • The call rests on falling US bond yields, a weaker dollar, capital rotation out of US money market funds, FII short covering and continued domestic inflows of around Rs.31,000 crore per month.
- • Bhandari expects the market's valuation multiple to expand from 18 times to 22-24 times, and favours selective buying in quality stocks over a defensive stance.
- • The Nifty has shed 3% over one month and 5.5% over three months and sits 14% below its 52-week high of 26,373.20, hit on January 5, 2026.
- • The forecast is conditional on global yields, currency moves and sustained domestic inflows; a reversal in any of these could alter the trajectory.
Summary
Monarch Networth Capital CEO Gaurav Bhandari expects the Nifty 50 to reach new all-time highs of 26,000-26,500 within the next four to five months, according to a note reported by Mint. He argues that a reversal in global macroeconomic conditions, particularly falling US bond yields and a weaker dollar, could bring foreign investors back to Indian equities and create a favourable backdrop for domestic stocks. He recommends selective buying in quality stocks rather than an overly defensive stance.
The index has come under pressure from higher crude oil prices, rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, persistent FII selling and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The Nifty has declined 14% from its 52-week high of 26,373.20, recorded on January 5, 2026.
Bhandari called current US bond yield levels unsustainable. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.35%, a 24-year high, after rising 110 basis points in 2026. He noted that the previous two instances when the 10-year yield crossed 5.25%, in 2002 and 2007, were followed by declines of 40-60% within 18 months. He also pointed to a US fiscal deficit of 6-7% and a persistent trade deficit, arguing these could precede further dollar weakness. The Dollar Index had slipped below 100 once in 2026, and he expects it could weaken toward 95. A softer dollar could encourage global investors to raise emerging market allocations, which Bhandari believes would benefit Indian equities.
Bhandari also highlighted $6.3 trillion held in US money market funds. He expects falling yields to make these instruments less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets, with the unwinding of global carry trades potentially amplifying the flows. He flagged substantial FII short positions in Indian equity futures, which could be covered if global sentiment shifts, adding buying pressure.
The report suggests this combination could support a valuation re-rating, with the market multiple expanding from 18 times to 22-24 times. The forecast depends on yields and currency moves unfolding as anticipated and on sustained domestic inflows. Investors are advised to monitor US Treasury yields, the dollar, FII positioning and domestic flows for signs the rally is gaining momentum. The views cited are those of individual analysts and not of Mint.
The index has come under pressure from higher crude oil prices, rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, persistent FII selling and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The Nifty has declined 14% from its 52-week high of 26,373.20, recorded on January 5, 2026.
Bhandari called current US bond yield levels unsustainable. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.35%, a 24-year high, after rising 110 basis points in 2026. He noted that the previous two instances when the 10-year yield crossed 5.25%, in 2002 and 2007, were followed by declines of 40-60% within 18 months. He also pointed to a US fiscal deficit of 6-7% and a persistent trade deficit, arguing these could precede further dollar weakness. The Dollar Index had slipped below 100 once in 2026, and he expects it could weaken toward 95. A softer dollar could encourage global investors to raise emerging market allocations, which Bhandari believes would benefit Indian equities.
Bhandari also highlighted $6.3 trillion held in US money market funds. He expects falling yields to make these instruments less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets, with the unwinding of global carry trades potentially amplifying the flows. He flagged substantial FII short positions in Indian equity futures, which could be covered if global sentiment shifts, adding buying pressure.
The report suggests this combination could support a valuation re-rating, with the market multiple expanding from 18 times to 22-24 times. The forecast depends on yields and currency moves unfolding as anticipated and on sustained domestic inflows. Investors are advised to monitor US Treasury yields, the dollar, FII positioning and domestic flows for signs the rally is gaining momentum. The views cited are those of individual analysts and not of Mint.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.