Key Takeaways
- • According to PitchBook data, firms raising a fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of U.S. VC fundraising dollars through the first three quarters of 2026, while first-time funds captured just 4.5%, with only 81 first-time funds closing in the first nine months.
- • RedBlue Capital founder Olaf Sakkers closed a first fund of roughly $5 million in 2023 and has held a first close on a second fund he says will total at least $50 million.
- • RedBlue writes $50,000 to $100,000 checks, mostly as a follow-on investor in deals led by others, and reports 15 of 28 investments marked up with a net IRR "significantly above 50%," with just one exit, an acqui-hire.
- • Sakkers says institutional LPs such as endowments and pensions have been the hardest to win because their risk models are built to "avoid getting a zero," favoring established brands.
- • Carta data cited in the article shows smaller venture funds of $1 million to $10 million consistently outperforming funds of $100 million or more at the top end of net TVPI across recent vintages.
Summary
First-time venture fund managers face a sharply constrained fundraising market in 2026. According to PitchBook, firms raising their fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of U.S. VC fundraising dollars through the first three quarters of the year, while first-time funds captured 4.5%. PitchBook estimates 2026 is on track to be the worst year for first-time managers in at least a decade.
Olaf Sakkers, who founded RedBlue Capital in 2021, is one of those emerging managers. He closed his first fund with roughly $5 million in commitments in 2023 and has since held a first close on a second fund that he says will total at least $50 million. Sakkers, who studied anthropology at Princeton and served in the Israel Defense Forces before entering venture capital, previously co-ran the investment process at Maniv Mobility alongside founder Michael Granoff. He left Maniv in 2021 for a more formal and scalable structure. RedBlue now focuses on what Sakkers calls the "real economy," including robotics, logistics, manufacturing and energy.
RedBlue's strategy centers on small checks of $50,000 to $100,000, mostly joining rounds led by other investors, with an emphasis on providing practical support such as introductions to lead investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital, and to customers. Sakkers says institutional LPs have been the toughest to win over, since their risk models prioritize avoiding losses and tend to favor established brands. The first fund drew on LPs he knew previously, including family offices, while the second draws on family offices and institutions.
Sakkers reports strong early results: of 28 investments, 15 have been marked up, and he cites a net internal rate of return of "significantly above 50%." Only one exit, an acqui-hire, has occurred, so most gains remain unrealized. The article cites portfolio companies including HappyRobot, which raised a $150 million Series C at a $1.2 billion valuation in August, and Humble Robotics, which announced a $51 million Series A led by Obvious Ventures. Carta data cited in the article indicates smaller funds between $1 million and $10 million have consistently outperformed funds of $100 million or more at the top end of net TVPI across recent vintages.
Olaf Sakkers, who founded RedBlue Capital in 2021, is one of those emerging managers. He closed his first fund with roughly $5 million in commitments in 2023 and has since held a first close on a second fund that he says will total at least $50 million. Sakkers, who studied anthropology at Princeton and served in the Israel Defense Forces before entering venture capital, previously co-ran the investment process at Maniv Mobility alongside founder Michael Granoff. He left Maniv in 2021 for a more formal and scalable structure. RedBlue now focuses on what Sakkers calls the "real economy," including robotics, logistics, manufacturing and energy.
RedBlue's strategy centers on small checks of $50,000 to $100,000, mostly joining rounds led by other investors, with an emphasis on providing practical support such as introductions to lead investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital, and to customers. Sakkers says institutional LPs have been the toughest to win over, since their risk models prioritize avoiding losses and tend to favor established brands. The first fund drew on LPs he knew previously, including family offices, while the second draws on family offices and institutions.
Sakkers reports strong early results: of 28 investments, 15 have been marked up, and he cites a net internal rate of return of "significantly above 50%." Only one exit, an acqui-hire, has occurred, so most gains remain unrealized. The article cites portfolio companies including HappyRobot, which raised a $150 million Series C at a $1.2 billion valuation in August, and Humble Robotics, which announced a $51 million Series A led by Obvious Ventures. Carta data cited in the article indicates smaller funds between $1 million and $10 million have consistently outperformed funds of $100 million or more at the top end of net TVPI across recent vintages.
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