Key Takeaways
- • S&P Dow Jones Indices announced an Oct. 27 licensing deal and market collaboration with Kalshi, making Kalshi its "preferred prediction market platform" and naming S&P DJI a "preferred provider" for constructing indices from Kalshi event contract data.
- • Kalshi event contracts tied to S&P DJI indices will settle against official index values published by S&P DJI, linking prediction market outcomes to benchmark-style resolution.
- • The collaboration could produce indices on economics, politics, and sports built from underlying Kalshi markets, which S&P DJI says will give market participants a new way to observe prediction-market signals.
- • Kalshi separately introduced combo trading in its elections category for U.S. Congressional races and multiple governor contests scheduled for Nov. 3, as elections trading spiked across ForecastEx, Gemini, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
Summary
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has announced a new licensing deal and market collaboration with Kalshi, the designated contract market, according to an Oct. 27 press release from S&P DJI. The partnership makes Kalshi S&P DJI's "preferred prediction market platform" and gives Kalshi a license for event contracts tied to S&P DJI indices. In return, S&P DJI is designated a "preferred provider for constructing indices from Kalshi event contract data." The release states that "forthcoming Kalshi event contracts will settle against official index values published by S&P DJI."
The arrangement is intended to expand Kalshi's financial markets for traders using prediction markets for diversification or hedging. Because benchmark indices are portfolios of securities representing a market or sector against which portfolios are measured, event contracts tied to S&P DJI indices will resolve based on how closely a specified portfolio tracks the benchmark. S&P DJI argues that the partnership draws on its index-construction expertise and signals a widely accepted standard for these new benchmarks, while noting that Kalshi's markets represent new territory for index construction.
The release says the collaboration will combine Kalshi's market data with S&P DJI's expertise to create indices on economics, politics, and sports built from underlying Kalshi markets. S&P DJI believes these indices will give "market participants a new way to observe and assess signals stemming from prediction markets." Indexing Kalshi's markets is expected to provide a longer-term measure of user sentiment on events by cataloging market-price fluctuations and converting them into reference benchmarks.
Separately, Kalshi has introduced election combos, allowing traders to combine multiple contracts in its elections category. The offering covers U.S. Congressional elections and races for multiple state governorships scheduled for Nov. 3, following earlier sports and multi-category combos. Elections trading has risen sharply across ForecastEx, Gemini, Kalshi, and Polymarket ahead of the contests for control of the U.S. House and Senate, with the most pronounced surges in the race for one of Texas' two Senate seats and in markets on which party will control the next House. Combos on Kalshi are expected to feed into the data underpinning future election-related indices.
The arrangement is intended to expand Kalshi's financial markets for traders using prediction markets for diversification or hedging. Because benchmark indices are portfolios of securities representing a market or sector against which portfolios are measured, event contracts tied to S&P DJI indices will resolve based on how closely a specified portfolio tracks the benchmark. S&P DJI argues that the partnership draws on its index-construction expertise and signals a widely accepted standard for these new benchmarks, while noting that Kalshi's markets represent new territory for index construction.
The release says the collaboration will combine Kalshi's market data with S&P DJI's expertise to create indices on economics, politics, and sports built from underlying Kalshi markets. S&P DJI believes these indices will give "market participants a new way to observe and assess signals stemming from prediction markets." Indexing Kalshi's markets is expected to provide a longer-term measure of user sentiment on events by cataloging market-price fluctuations and converting them into reference benchmarks.
Separately, Kalshi has introduced election combos, allowing traders to combine multiple contracts in its elections category. The offering covers U.S. Congressional elections and races for multiple state governorships scheduled for Nov. 3, following earlier sports and multi-category combos. Elections trading has risen sharply across ForecastEx, Gemini, Kalshi, and Polymarket ahead of the contests for control of the U.S. House and Senate, with the most pronounced surges in the race for one of Texas' two Senate seats and in markets on which party will control the next House. Combos on Kalshi are expected to feed into the data underpinning future election-related indices.
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