Key Takeaways
- • Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) #1 refined nickel prices surged to 123,000–125,600 yuan/mt on April 14, 2026, averaging 124,300 yuan/mt, representing a 1,900 yuan/mt gain from the previous trading day and a 1.69% intraday advance in SHFE futures.
- • Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) finalized a revision to the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HPM) formula for implementation in April 2026, incorporating "market premiums" paid by smelters into royalty calculations to ensure state revenue reflects actual transaction values rather than serving as a mere floor price.
- • The HPM revision marks a structural shift in Indonesia's nickel pricing mechanism, with Director General Tri Winarno stating the current formula fails to account for premiums currently embedded in smelter transactions, positioning the updated HPM as a more accurate market benchmark.
- • Supply-side concerns continue to drive nickel strength, with Indonesia—controlling approximately 65% of global nickel supply—implementing production restraint commitments following years of chronic oversupply that depressed prices in 2023–2025.
- • SHFE nickel 2510 futures closed the night session at 122,350 yuan/mt, up 1,050 yuan/mt (0.87%), with midday settlement at 123,350 yuan/mt as macroeconomic tailwinds from US PCE inflation data and potential Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations supported the upside move.
Summary
Nickel prices registered significant gains on April 14, 2026, as Indonesia announced revised procedures for its Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HPM) calculation. Shanghai Metals Market reported that SMM #1 refined nickel prices traded in a 123,000–125,600 yuan/mt range, with an intraday average of 124,300 yuan/mt, reflecting a 1,900 yuan/mt advance from the prior session. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel 2510 contracts extended gains into the morning session, settling at 123,350 yuan/mt by midday with a cumulative 1.69% rally, following an overnight close of 122,350 yuan/mt (up 1,050 yuan/mt or 0.87%).
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) disclosed that it is finalizing a fundamental revision to its nickel ore benchmark price methodology, with implementation targeted for April 2026. Director General of Minerals and Coal Tri Winarno articulated that the existing HPM formula no longer reflects actual market transaction values because it fails to incorporate the "market premiums" that smelters currently pay for ore. The revised formula will integrate these premiums as explicit variables in royalty calculations, ensuring that state revenue capture reflects the full economic value of nickel sales. This structural change shifts the HPM from functioning as a simple floor price to serving as a genuinely representative market-based benchmark that more accurately reflects supply-demand dynamics and actual settlement prices.
The rally reflects broader structural supply dynamics within the global nickel market. Indonesia controls approximately 65% of global nickel supply and has committed to production restraint following years of unchecked output growth that generated chronic oversupply conditions and depressed prices throughout 2023–2025. The HPM revision announcement heightened supply tightness concerns among market participants. Spot market premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,200 yuan/mt (down 100 yuan/mt day-on-day), while domestic electrodeposited nickel brands traded with discounts ranging from -150 to 300 yuan/mt, indicating continued structural supply constraints despite recent modest softening in the first half of April.
Macroeconomic conditions provided secondary support for the nickel advance. US PCE inflation data aligned with consensus expectations, bolstering market sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, while the US dollar index fluctuated lower—both factors traditionally supportive for dollar-denominated commodity prices. Market participants project nickel prices will consolidate within a 121,000–125,000 yuan/mt range in the near term, anchored by supply-management initiatives and macroeconomic policy expectations rather than demand-driven fundamentals.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) disclosed that it is finalizing a fundamental revision to its nickel ore benchmark price methodology, with implementation targeted for April 2026. Director General of Minerals and Coal Tri Winarno articulated that the existing HPM formula no longer reflects actual market transaction values because it fails to incorporate the "market premiums" that smelters currently pay for ore. The revised formula will integrate these premiums as explicit variables in royalty calculations, ensuring that state revenue capture reflects the full economic value of nickel sales. This structural change shifts the HPM from functioning as a simple floor price to serving as a genuinely representative market-based benchmark that more accurately reflects supply-demand dynamics and actual settlement prices.
The rally reflects broader structural supply dynamics within the global nickel market. Indonesia controls approximately 65% of global nickel supply and has committed to production restraint following years of unchecked output growth that generated chronic oversupply conditions and depressed prices throughout 2023–2025. The HPM revision announcement heightened supply tightness concerns among market participants. Spot market premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,200 yuan/mt (down 100 yuan/mt day-on-day), while domestic electrodeposited nickel brands traded with discounts ranging from -150 to 300 yuan/mt, indicating continued structural supply constraints despite recent modest softening in the first half of April.
Macroeconomic conditions provided secondary support for the nickel advance. US PCE inflation data aligned with consensus expectations, bolstering market sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, while the US dollar index fluctuated lower—both factors traditionally supportive for dollar-denominated commodity prices. Market participants project nickel prices will consolidate within a 121,000–125,000 yuan/mt range in the near term, anchored by supply-management initiatives and macroeconomic policy expectations rather than demand-driven fundamentals.
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