Key Takeaways
- • A new NBER working paper by Blake Jackson and Ilya A. Strebulaev, built on a dataset of more than 100,000 professionals at US VC firms (including 37,000 investment professionals), finds that investment success is highly concentrated among a small group of venture capitalists.
- • Only 38 percent of VC investors who made at least one investment were ever credited with a successful investment, and just 15 percent recorded three or more successes.
- • The top 1 percent of VCs, about 120 individuals, account for roughly 57 percent of the approximately $1.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted net profits generated across the sample, while the top 5 percent account for about 90 percent.
- • Prior success predicts future success, with investors who have five prior successes about 7 percentage points more likely to succeed, while female VC investors are credited with 37 percent fewer successful investments than male peers from the same entry cohort.
- • Recognition on the Forbes Midas List improves access to high-quality deals: investors just above the inclusion threshold were more than 4 percent more likely to back successful companies in subsequent years, an effect concentrated in new investments.
Summary
A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, Human Capital in Venture Capital: Evidence from 100,000 Venture Capitalists (NBER Working Paper 35501), by Blake Jackson and Ilya A. Strebulaev, examines which individual characteristics distinguish venture capital professionals who succeed and why investment returns are so concentrated. The authors note that venture-backed firms account for 41 percent of US stock market capitalization, seven of the ten largest US companies by market value at the end of 2025, and 62 percent of public companies' R&D spending.
The study draws on a new dataset covering more than 100,000 professionals at US VC firms, including 37,000 investment professionals, with biographical details extracted from archived firm websites for 1996 to 2025 using large language models with manual validation. According to the authors, about half of the data points are not available in standard commercial datasets. The firms covered collectively raised and deployed 96 percent of capital invested by institutional US venture funds during the sample period. Investment outcomes were drawn from PitchBook, VentureSource, and the archived biographies, and the researchers also compared VCs who narrowly made the annual Forbes Midas List of the top 100 VCs with those who narrowly missed it.
Returns are highly skewed. Only 38 percent of investors were ever credited with a successful investment, and fewer than 40 percent of those making investments have ever funded a successful firm. Successful investors disproportionately came from higher-ranked schools, held top MBA or advanced degrees, had previously served as CEO or founder of a successful startup, or transitioned from technology or investment banking. VC investors with an MBA from a highly ranked school are estimated to generate net lifetime profits at least twice those of the average investor. Prior success also compounds: investors with one prior success are 2 percentage points more likely to succeed again, and those with five are about 7 percentage points more likely, a near 50 percent increase over the average success rate.
The paper also documents gender gaps. On a career basis, female VC investors are credited with 37 percent fewer successful investments on average than male VCs from the same entry cohort. Female professionals are 2.6 percentage points less likely to be promoted to partner, although the gap has narrowed over time. Advanced degrees, MBAs, prior startup or technology experience, and joining at a more senior level are associated with higher promotion odds.
Finally, the Midas List result suggests public recognition has practical value. Investors just above the inclusion threshold were more than 4 percent more likely to invest in companies with successful outcomes in subsequent years. The effect is concentrated in new investments rather than existing ones, which the authors interpret as recognition improving access to high-quality startups rather than conferring new investing skill.
The study draws on a new dataset covering more than 100,000 professionals at US VC firms, including 37,000 investment professionals, with biographical details extracted from archived firm websites for 1996 to 2025 using large language models with manual validation. According to the authors, about half of the data points are not available in standard commercial datasets. The firms covered collectively raised and deployed 96 percent of capital invested by institutional US venture funds during the sample period. Investment outcomes were drawn from PitchBook, VentureSource, and the archived biographies, and the researchers also compared VCs who narrowly made the annual Forbes Midas List of the top 100 VCs with those who narrowly missed it.
Returns are highly skewed. Only 38 percent of investors were ever credited with a successful investment, and fewer than 40 percent of those making investments have ever funded a successful firm. Successful investors disproportionately came from higher-ranked schools, held top MBA or advanced degrees, had previously served as CEO or founder of a successful startup, or transitioned from technology or investment banking. VC investors with an MBA from a highly ranked school are estimated to generate net lifetime profits at least twice those of the average investor. Prior success also compounds: investors with one prior success are 2 percentage points more likely to succeed again, and those with five are about 7 percentage points more likely, a near 50 percent increase over the average success rate.
The paper also documents gender gaps. On a career basis, female VC investors are credited with 37 percent fewer successful investments on average than male VCs from the same entry cohort. Female professionals are 2.6 percentage points less likely to be promoted to partner, although the gap has narrowed over time. Advanced degrees, MBAs, prior startup or technology experience, and joining at a more senior level are associated with higher promotion odds.
Finally, the Midas List result suggests public recognition has practical value. Investors just above the inclusion threshold were more than 4 percent more likely to invest in companies with successful outcomes in subsequent years. The effect is concentrated in new investments rather than existing ones, which the authors interpret as recognition improving access to high-quality startups rather than conferring new investing skill.
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