Key Takeaways
- • Barclays Private Bank's Global Family Office Forum 2026, held at The OWO at Raffles London, framed the investment backdrop as a new regime shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, technological disruption and persistent uncertainty.
- • Speakers argued the low-rate, abundant-liquidity period of the last 15 years may have been the exception rather than the norm, with higher rates, a meaningful cost of capital and greater dispersion between winners and losers.
- • Jason Cuttler of Hudson Bay Capital Management compared the current AI stage to 1996 rather than 1999, while Julien Lafargue of Barclays argued productivity gains are the key question for investors.
- • Panelists urged family offices to prioritise selectivity, diversification across investment drivers and risk management, and to consider how protectionism, energy markets and supply chains interact.
- • Former UK Prime Minister Lord Cameron warned that the world is "much more dangerous and unstable" than investors are accustomed to, and stressed policy consistency and institutional stability.
Summary
Barclays Private Bank hosted the Global Family Office Forum 2026 at The OWO at Raffles London, bringing together family office principals, business leaders and investors to discuss how wealth owners should position for the years ahead. Topics ranged from geopolitics and macroeconomics to AI and portfolio construction, with a common theme that investors may need to rethink assumptions that shaped markets over much of the past decade.
On geopolitics, Andrew McDougall, Head of Geopolitical Risk at Barclays, described uncertainty as the defining feature of the current environment and argued that investors must manage multiple risks at once, including protectionism, energy markets and supply chain resilience. Former UK Prime Minister Lord Cameron, in a fireside chat with Adeel Khan, Global Head of Markets at Barclays Investment Bank, said the world is "much more dangerous and unstable" than investors are accustomed to. Trade policy, industrial strategy, technology competition and energy security are now directly influencing investment outcomes.
A central theme was that investors are entering a different economic regime. Caesar Yuan, Partner at Balyasny, characterised the post-financial-crisis period as an unusual chapter marked by low inflation, quantitative easing and unprecedented monetary support, contrasting it with today's stronger fiscal intervention, higher rates and greater volatility. Jason Cuttler, Senior Markets & Derivatives Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management, said the environment is "fundamentally different" from the post-crisis era, marked by higher rates, a meaningful cost of capital, greater dispersion and a more active policy role. Panelists suggested that portfolio construction should place greater weight on selectivity, diversification and risk management, while rising yields need not be purely negative if accompanied by productivity gains.
AI was a recurring topic, with the focus on long-term economic effects rather than short-term market enthusiasm. Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, said productivity is the key question; measurable gains remain modest but adoption is at an early stage. Cuttler compared the current stage to the mid-1990s internet era, saying "We are closer to 1996 than we are to 1999." Ben Rogoff, Partner at Polar Capital, described AI as a foundational transformation. Thomas Banks warned of growing stress in parts of the software and leveraged credit markets, saying the AI cycle "is going to create a lot of winners and losers." The first phase has mainly benefited infrastructure builders, while the next phase may reward firms applying the technology to raise productivity and cut costs.
The forum also covered quantum computing and humanoid robotics. Gerald Mullalley, CEO of Oxford Quantum Computing, said government support, private investment and technical progress are moving quantum closer to commercial viability in pharmaceuticals, optimisation and cybersecurity. Robotics discussions focused on practical constraints such as energy consumption, compute infrastructure and industrial adoption.
The forum closed with Lord Cameron discussing populism, the future of NATO, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the UK's role outside the EU. He said governments should enable technological progress while remaining alert to security risks, and emphasised long-term leadership and institutional stability. The overall takeaway, as presented by the forum, was that successful investing over the next decade may depend less on bold predictions and more on recognising early that the rules have changed, with selectivity and discipline central to navigating uncertainty.
On geopolitics, Andrew McDougall, Head of Geopolitical Risk at Barclays, described uncertainty as the defining feature of the current environment and argued that investors must manage multiple risks at once, including protectionism, energy markets and supply chain resilience. Former UK Prime Minister Lord Cameron, in a fireside chat with Adeel Khan, Global Head of Markets at Barclays Investment Bank, said the world is "much more dangerous and unstable" than investors are accustomed to. Trade policy, industrial strategy, technology competition and energy security are now directly influencing investment outcomes.
A central theme was that investors are entering a different economic regime. Caesar Yuan, Partner at Balyasny, characterised the post-financial-crisis period as an unusual chapter marked by low inflation, quantitative easing and unprecedented monetary support, contrasting it with today's stronger fiscal intervention, higher rates and greater volatility. Jason Cuttler, Senior Markets & Derivatives Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management, said the environment is "fundamentally different" from the post-crisis era, marked by higher rates, a meaningful cost of capital, greater dispersion and a more active policy role. Panelists suggested that portfolio construction should place greater weight on selectivity, diversification and risk management, while rising yields need not be purely negative if accompanied by productivity gains.
AI was a recurring topic, with the focus on long-term economic effects rather than short-term market enthusiasm. Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, said productivity is the key question; measurable gains remain modest but adoption is at an early stage. Cuttler compared the current stage to the mid-1990s internet era, saying "We are closer to 1996 than we are to 1999." Ben Rogoff, Partner at Polar Capital, described AI as a foundational transformation. Thomas Banks warned of growing stress in parts of the software and leveraged credit markets, saying the AI cycle "is going to create a lot of winners and losers." The first phase has mainly benefited infrastructure builders, while the next phase may reward firms applying the technology to raise productivity and cut costs.
The forum also covered quantum computing and humanoid robotics. Gerald Mullalley, CEO of Oxford Quantum Computing, said government support, private investment and technical progress are moving quantum closer to commercial viability in pharmaceuticals, optimisation and cybersecurity. Robotics discussions focused on practical constraints such as energy consumption, compute infrastructure and industrial adoption.
The forum closed with Lord Cameron discussing populism, the future of NATO, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the UK's role outside the EU. He said governments should enable technological progress while remaining alert to security risks, and emphasised long-term leadership and institutional stability. The overall takeaway, as presented by the forum, was that successful investing over the next decade may depend less on bold predictions and more on recognising early that the rules have changed, with selectivity and discipline central to navigating uncertainty.
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