Key Takeaways
- • A Carnegie Endowment survey conducted by YouGov (October 7-27, 2026; nationally representative online sample of 1,000 Indian American adults, margin of error ±3.87 points) finds 62 percent of Indian American citizens intend to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, versus 19 percent for the Republican candidate.
- • The 43-point Democratic advantage ahead of the November 2026 midterms exceeds the 32-point advantage Kamala Harris held over Donald Trump in 2024, though Carnegie cautions that the surveys measure different contests.
- • Older Indian American men shifted sharply: Republican support among men aged 40 and older fell to 16 percent from 32 percent in January 2026, while Democratic support rose from 53 to 68 percent.
- • Party identification has held steady at 46 percent Democrat, 19 percent Republican and 26 percent independent, indicating the Democratic electoral gain extends beyond the party's core base.
- • Democratic voters are more often motivated by opposition to Republicans (35 percent) than Republican voters are by opposition to Democrats (17 percent), an asymmetry Carnegie links to negative partisanship.
Summary
A new Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey of Indian Americans, conducted with the research firm YouGov, shows a strong rebound in Democratic electoral support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The October 2026 Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) is a nationally representative online poll of 1,000 Indian American adults, fielded between October 7 and October 27, 2026, and analyses of vote preference are restricted to the 861 U.S. citizens in the subsample. The article's authors are Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, Annabel Miller, Andy Robaina and Milan Vaishnav.
According to the survey, 62 percent of Indian American citizens intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 19 percent for the Republican candidate. Democrats hold a similar lead in states with Senate races, at 63 percent to 21 percent. Carnegie notes that Democratic support has returned to its 2024 presidential level of 62 percent, while Republican support has fallen from 30 percent in 2024 and 25 percent in January 2026. Because earlier waves measured presidential preferences, the authors caution against direct comparison.
The shift is most pronounced among older men. Among men aged 40 and older, Republican support now stands at 16 percent, down from 32 percent in January 2026, and Democratic support rose from 53 to 68 percent. Younger men aged 18 to 39 also moved toward Democrats, with 64 percent backing Democratic congressional candidates and 23 percent Republican. Among women, results were more mixed: younger women remain strongly Democratic at 58 percent, though that is 10 points below January's figure, while older women's Democratic support recovered from 50 to 58 percent.
The survey also finds that Democratic voters are more often motivated by opposition to the Republican side. Of those intending to back Democratic congressional candidates, 65 percent cite support for their candidate or party and 35 percent cite opposition to Republicans. By contrast, 83 percent of Republican supporters cite support for their own candidate or party. Carnegie describes this 18-point gap as evidence of a stronger role for negative partisanship among Indian American Democrats.
Despite these electoral shifts, partisan identification has changed little. According to the survey, 46 percent identify as Democrats, 19 percent as Republicans and 26 percent as independents, figures virtually unchanged from January 2026. Carnegie notes that the Democratic lead among voters therefore extends beyond the party's identifiers. Carnegie also reports that Democratic identification among women slipped from 50 to 46 percent over two years, and that Republican identification among Indian American Muslims dropped from 17 to 10 percent since 2024.
The article places these findings against the backdrop of growing Indian American concern about discrimination, prompted in part by a post from Texas Republican state candidate Bo French, who shared a photo of South Asian students celebrating at the University of Texas and wrote, "I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn't believe it." Carnegie reports that by early 2026, large majorities disapproved of Trump's handling of immigration, the economy, international economic policy and U.S.-India relations, though Democrats gained little from that disillusionment until the latest survey.
According to the survey, 62 percent of Indian American citizens intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 19 percent for the Republican candidate. Democrats hold a similar lead in states with Senate races, at 63 percent to 21 percent. Carnegie notes that Democratic support has returned to its 2024 presidential level of 62 percent, while Republican support has fallen from 30 percent in 2024 and 25 percent in January 2026. Because earlier waves measured presidential preferences, the authors caution against direct comparison.
The shift is most pronounced among older men. Among men aged 40 and older, Republican support now stands at 16 percent, down from 32 percent in January 2026, and Democratic support rose from 53 to 68 percent. Younger men aged 18 to 39 also moved toward Democrats, with 64 percent backing Democratic congressional candidates and 23 percent Republican. Among women, results were more mixed: younger women remain strongly Democratic at 58 percent, though that is 10 points below January's figure, while older women's Democratic support recovered from 50 to 58 percent.
The survey also finds that Democratic voters are more often motivated by opposition to the Republican side. Of those intending to back Democratic congressional candidates, 65 percent cite support for their candidate or party and 35 percent cite opposition to Republicans. By contrast, 83 percent of Republican supporters cite support for their own candidate or party. Carnegie describes this 18-point gap as evidence of a stronger role for negative partisanship among Indian American Democrats.
Despite these electoral shifts, partisan identification has changed little. According to the survey, 46 percent identify as Democrats, 19 percent as Republicans and 26 percent as independents, figures virtually unchanged from January 2026. Carnegie notes that the Democratic lead among voters therefore extends beyond the party's identifiers. Carnegie also reports that Democratic identification among women slipped from 50 to 46 percent over two years, and that Republican identification among Indian American Muslims dropped from 17 to 10 percent since 2024.
The article places these findings against the backdrop of growing Indian American concern about discrimination, prompted in part by a post from Texas Republican state candidate Bo French, who shared a photo of South Asian students celebrating at the University of Texas and wrote, "I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn't believe it." Carnegie reports that by early 2026, large majorities disapproved of Trump's handling of immigration, the economy, international economic policy and U.S.-India relations, though Democrats gained little from that disillusionment until the latest survey.
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