Key Takeaways
- • Standard Chartered's Weekly Market View (30 January 2026) attributes the 2026 surge in gold (up 25% year to date) and silver (up over 60%) to escalating geopolitical uncertainty and a reconfiguration of the post-World War II global order.
- • Standard Chartered sees gold's rally as overextended and warns of a possible near-term pullback toward USD 4,700/oz, but maintains that gold remains a portfolio hedge, with its balanced portfolio holding 6% in gold.
- • Global gold demand surpassed a record 5,000 tonnes in 2025, led by the second-strongest annual rise in gold ETF holdings and bar and coin purchases at a 12-year high, according to the World Gold Council.
- • The bank maintains a pro-risk stance, citing US technology sector earnings growth of 28.2% in Q4 2025 versus 10.2% for the broader index, and a projected 31.1% EPS growth for 2026.
- • Standard Chartered favours CHF over JPY as a safe haven, and an overweight on India, while expecting US 10-year yields to trade in a 4.1-4.3% range near term.
Summary
Standard Chartered's weekly market view argues that the year's rally in gold and silver reflects escalating geopolitical uncertainty and an emerging new world order. The bank cites President Trump's indifference to the US dollar's decline to a four-year low, alongside fears over possible US intervention in Iran, as factors intensifying gold's rally. Gold has risen 25% this year and silver more than 60%, outperforming equities and other major asset classes for a third consecutive year. Haven currencies such as the CHF and the AUD, a major gold exporter, have also outperformed.
The bank views prices as stretched. Technical indicators and investor positioning suggest a near-term pullback, with gold possibly falling toward USD 4,700/oz. Standard Chartered recommends long-term investors consider adding exposure on pullbacks, while overweight investors should rebalance into alternative assets to reduce volatility. The firm prefers gold to silver as the gold-silver ratio approaches its lowest level since 2011, noting that silver's surge could curtail industrial demand and encourage substitution.
Medium-term support for gold comes from robust central bank buying by emerging market institutions seeking to diversify away from the USD. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand surpassed a record 5,000 tonnes in 2025, while gold supply rose only 1%. The bank also flags an anticipated appointment of a more dovish Fed Chair as a potential further dollar negative, amid concerns over Fed independence.
On equities, the bank remains bullish on US technology, citing strong Q4 2025 earnings and a weaker dollar supporting overseas revenue, given the sector's 56% overseas exposure. It also favours emerging market equities, bonds and alternative investments as diversifiers during dollar weakness. In currencies, it prefers CHF over JPY, noting USD/CHF has reached an 11-year low while warning of risks to carry trades, and expects Japanese political uncertainty to weigh on the yen. Standard Chartered also maintains an overweight on India, citing attractive valuations, while expecting US 10-year yields to remain rangebound at 4.1-4.3%.
The bank views prices as stretched. Technical indicators and investor positioning suggest a near-term pullback, with gold possibly falling toward USD 4,700/oz. Standard Chartered recommends long-term investors consider adding exposure on pullbacks, while overweight investors should rebalance into alternative assets to reduce volatility. The firm prefers gold to silver as the gold-silver ratio approaches its lowest level since 2011, noting that silver's surge could curtail industrial demand and encourage substitution.
Medium-term support for gold comes from robust central bank buying by emerging market institutions seeking to diversify away from the USD. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand surpassed a record 5,000 tonnes in 2025, while gold supply rose only 1%. The bank also flags an anticipated appointment of a more dovish Fed Chair as a potential further dollar negative, amid concerns over Fed independence.
On equities, the bank remains bullish on US technology, citing strong Q4 2025 earnings and a weaker dollar supporting overseas revenue, given the sector's 56% overseas exposure. It also favours emerging market equities, bonds and alternative investments as diversifiers during dollar weakness. In currencies, it prefers CHF over JPY, noting USD/CHF has reached an 11-year low while warning of risks to carry trades, and expects Japanese political uncertainty to weigh on the yen. Standard Chartered also maintains an overweight on India, citing attractive valuations, while expecting US 10-year yields to remain rangebound at 4.1-4.3%.
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