Key Takeaways
- • U.S. CEOs maintain robust confidence in their own company growth (83%) and industry prospects (86%), but confidence in U.S. economic growth drops to 55% and global economic growth to 53% over the next year, signaling a disconnect between microeconomic optimism and macro uncertainty.
- • Nearly two-thirds of CEOs (63%) report plans to actively pursue M&A dealmaking in 2026, with 78% predicting increased global M&A activity, driven partly by the need to acquire AI capabilities and talent as organic development faces competitive pressure.
- • AI investment spending continues to accelerate, with 68% of CEOs increasing investment in 2026; executives view AI's disruptive impact over the next 5-10 years as underhyped, positioning artificial intelligence as a core driver of competitive advantage despite economic headwinds.
- • Policy uncertainty—including tariffs, interest rates, and regulatory changes—is cited by 52% of CEOs as the top pressure driving short-term strategic decisions, constraining growth confidence despite strong balance sheets and strategic optionality.
- • Cybersecurity emerges as a top investment priority alongside AI deployment, with the rapid pace of AI and quantum computing advancement creating new vulnerabilities that organizations must address in their technology infrastructure and operational models.
Summary
U.S. CEOs are navigating a paradoxical operating environment in 2026: maintaining aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and pursuing mergers and acquisitions while simultaneously tempering expectations for near-term U.S. and global economic growth. According to a KPMG study released March 10, this bifurcated confidence profile reveals executives' belief in their individual competitive positioning even as macroeconomic headwinds persist.
The confidence gap is stark. While 83% of CEOs express confidence in their own company's growth prospects and 86% remain bullish on their industry, only 55% are confident in U.S. economic growth over the next year, and just 53% expect global economic expansion. Tim Walsh, KPMG U.S. Chair and CEO, attributed this resilience to AI-driven agility: "AI is accelerating the cycle of innovation, giving CEOs more agility to navigate uncertainty and seize opportunities in the market." Executives report that AI agents are already delivering tangible operational benefits—informing supply chain strategy, defending against cyberattacks, and enhancing workforce capabilities—yet Walsh emphasized that the real strategic value lies in embedding AI agents into entirely new business models, a transformation still underway across most organizations.
M&A activity is positioned as a critical growth lever in this environment. Nearly two-thirds of CEOs (63%) intend to actively pursue dealmaking in 2026, with 78% predicting increased global M&A volume. This M&A surge is partly necessity-driven; as acquirable AI-native targets grow scarce after two years of intense deal activity, traditional companies are accelerating acquisitions to secure AI talent and capabilities. Simultaneously, 68% of CEOs report they will increase AI spending in 2026, signaling that investment in artificial intelligence will remain a strategic priority regardless of macroeconomic conditions.
External pressures, however, are tempering growth ambitions. Policy uncertainty—encompassing tariffs, interest rates, and regulatory frameworks—is cited by 52% of CEOs as the top short-term pressure on decision-making. Beyond AI, cybersecurity has emerged as a top investment priority, reflecting the heightened vulnerability landscape created by rapid AI adoption and advancing quantum computing capabilities. This multi-front investment posture suggests CEOs are building organizational resilience even as they pursue growth, hedging against both technological disruption and policy volatility.
The confidence gap is stark. While 83% of CEOs express confidence in their own company's growth prospects and 86% remain bullish on their industry, only 55% are confident in U.S. economic growth over the next year, and just 53% expect global economic expansion. Tim Walsh, KPMG U.S. Chair and CEO, attributed this resilience to AI-driven agility: "AI is accelerating the cycle of innovation, giving CEOs more agility to navigate uncertainty and seize opportunities in the market." Executives report that AI agents are already delivering tangible operational benefits—informing supply chain strategy, defending against cyberattacks, and enhancing workforce capabilities—yet Walsh emphasized that the real strategic value lies in embedding AI agents into entirely new business models, a transformation still underway across most organizations.
M&A activity is positioned as a critical growth lever in this environment. Nearly two-thirds of CEOs (63%) intend to actively pursue dealmaking in 2026, with 78% predicting increased global M&A volume. This M&A surge is partly necessity-driven; as acquirable AI-native targets grow scarce after two years of intense deal activity, traditional companies are accelerating acquisitions to secure AI talent and capabilities. Simultaneously, 68% of CEOs report they will increase AI spending in 2026, signaling that investment in artificial intelligence will remain a strategic priority regardless of macroeconomic conditions.
External pressures, however, are tempering growth ambitions. Policy uncertainty—encompassing tariffs, interest rates, and regulatory frameworks—is cited by 52% of CEOs as the top short-term pressure on decision-making. Beyond AI, cybersecurity has emerged as a top investment priority, reflecting the heightened vulnerability landscape created by rapid AI adoption and advancing quantum computing capabilities. This multi-front investment posture suggests CEOs are building organizational resilience even as they pursue growth, hedging against both technological disruption and policy volatility.
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