Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise Asset Management forecasts a target price of $1.6 million per bitcoin by 2036 in its updated 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
- • The report projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate for bitcoin over the next decade, with average volatility of 27.8%.
- • Bitwise forecasts an average correlation of 0.43 between bitcoin and U.S. stocks.
- • Bitwise recommends institutional investor allocations of 1% to 5% of portfolios to bitcoin.
- • Bitwise identifies quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal as the largest risks to its forecast.
Summary
Bitwise Asset Management has published an updated edition of its "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions," providing forecasts for bitcoin's return, volatility, and correlations over the next decade. The headline projection is a target price of $1.6 million by 2036, implying a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%.
The firm expects bitcoin to be the best-performing major institutional asset over the coming decade. It also expects the asset to remain volatile, with average volatility of 27.8% and significant, though diminishing, drawdowns. The report forecasts an average correlation of 0.43 between bitcoin and U.S. stocks, a figure relevant to portfolio construction for allocators assessing diversification benefits.
Based on these assumptions, Bitwise suggests institutional investors consider allocations of 1% to 5% of portfolios to bitcoin. The report identifies three principal risks to the forecast: quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal.
Bitwise describes itself as a global asset manager specializing in crypto and onchain finance, with more than $14 billion in client assets and over 70 investment products spanning ETFs, option income strategies, model portfolios, DeFi vaults, tokenized funds, and staking. The firm serves more than 5,500 private wealth teams, RIAs, family offices, and institutional investors, as well as 21 banks and broker-dealers, and is headquartered in San Francisco with offices in New York and London.
The firm expects bitcoin to be the best-performing major institutional asset over the coming decade. It also expects the asset to remain volatile, with average volatility of 27.8% and significant, though diminishing, drawdowns. The report forecasts an average correlation of 0.43 between bitcoin and U.S. stocks, a figure relevant to portfolio construction for allocators assessing diversification benefits.
Based on these assumptions, Bitwise suggests institutional investors consider allocations of 1% to 5% of portfolios to bitcoin. The report identifies three principal risks to the forecast: quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal.
Bitwise describes itself as a global asset manager specializing in crypto and onchain finance, with more than $14 billion in client assets and over 70 investment products spanning ETFs, option income strategies, model portfolios, DeFi vaults, tokenized funds, and staking. The firm serves more than 5,500 private wealth teams, RIAs, family offices, and institutional investors, as well as 21 banks and broker-dealers, and is headquartered in San Francisco with offices in New York and London.
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