Key Takeaways
- • 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena says bitcoin could advance toward $90,000 once near-term macro uncertainty clears, provided it moves back through $85,000 resistance.
- • Mena's analysis finds bitcoin averaged a 1.21% gain in the seven days following hotter-than-expected core CPI releases since 2023, supporting his view that an inflation surprise need not halt a recovery.
- • September CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, with core CPI up 0.3% monthly against 0.2% expected; bitcoin fell below $83,000 after the release.
- • Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $175.62 million in net inflows on Oct. 13, led by Fidelity's FBTC ($103.06 million) and BlackRock's IBIT ($65.89 million).
- • Mena sees downside risk to roughly $81,000 and identifies $77,500 as the next major level if the ETF cost-basis support near $81,500 fails.
Summary
Bitcoin could advance toward $90,000 once near-term economic uncertainty clears, according to Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at crypto investment product issuer 21Shares. In commentary supplied to Bitcoin.com News on Oct. 14, Mena argued that last week's decline below $85,000 had already priced in much of the downside risk associated with a hotter inflation reading.
Mena characterized the upcoming producer price index release, due Oct. 15, as the final major near-term macro data point ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Oct. 27-28. He said this could set up another test of $85,000 resistance. "While a pullback toward $81k remains possible, we believe the balance of risks favors a move through $85k and toward $90k once the remaining macro uncertainty clears," Mena said.
The backdrop is a hotter-than-expected inflation print. September consumer prices rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% over the prior year, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, above the 0.2% monthly figure economists had expected. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $83,000, toward $82,800, after the release. Earlier, bitcoin had tested the $81,000-$82,000 zone, and Mena's view rests on that selling having absorbed much of the inflation risk.
Institutional flows offer some support for the outlook. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.62 million in net inflows on Oct. 13, reversing the prior session's withdrawals, and ether funds returned to positive flows with $24.84 million after 10 consecutive sessions of redemptions. Glassnode identifies an ETF cost basis near $81,500, which bitcoin has twice rebounded from, with approximately $77,500 as the next major downside level if that support fails.
Mena also cited quarterly ETF inflows exceeding $3 billion for ether and $500 million for solana, describing them as the strongest quarter this year. He expects ether to consolidate near $2,500 before another attempt at $2,800-$3,000, and identified $130 as a potential solana price level by quarter-end.
Mena characterized the upcoming producer price index release, due Oct. 15, as the final major near-term macro data point ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Oct. 27-28. He said this could set up another test of $85,000 resistance. "While a pullback toward $81k remains possible, we believe the balance of risks favors a move through $85k and toward $90k once the remaining macro uncertainty clears," Mena said.
The backdrop is a hotter-than-expected inflation print. September consumer prices rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% over the prior year, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, above the 0.2% monthly figure economists had expected. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $83,000, toward $82,800, after the release. Earlier, bitcoin had tested the $81,000-$82,000 zone, and Mena's view rests on that selling having absorbed much of the inflation risk.
Institutional flows offer some support for the outlook. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.62 million in net inflows on Oct. 13, reversing the prior session's withdrawals, and ether funds returned to positive flows with $24.84 million after 10 consecutive sessions of redemptions. Glassnode identifies an ETF cost basis near $81,500, which bitcoin has twice rebounded from, with approximately $77,500 as the next major downside level if that support fails.
Mena also cited quarterly ETF inflows exceeding $3 billion for ether and $500 million for solana, describing them as the strongest quarter this year. He expects ether to consolidate near $2,500 before another attempt at $2,800-$3,000, and identified $130 as a potential solana price level by quarter-end.
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