Key Takeaways
- • Felix O. Hartmann, Managing General Partner at Hartmann Capital, says the era of easy, guaranteed crypto returns is over and that real value now drives investment decisions.
- • Hartmann Capital's crypto hedge fund is far more selective than its earlier venture fund, shifting focus toward real-world assets, DeFi, and sustainable crypto business models.
- • Industry success metrics are shifting from total value locked (TVL) toward revenue, profits, and token buybacks, according to the article.
- • Bitcoin retains a stronger narrative as digital gold backed by institutions, ETFs, and long-term holders, while many altcoins must prove revenue and earnings.
- • Hartmann characterizes the altcoin underperformance since 2021 as a painful but necessary maturation phase, with a more mature asset class possible by 2026 or 2027.
Summary
Felix O. Hartmann, Managing General Partner at Hartmann Capital, argues that crypto investors should abandon expectations of easy returns and focus on fundamental value, according to a TradingView article titled "Altcoin Season 2026: Why Most Tokens May Never Recover."
The article reports that many venture capital firms now split their strategies between crypto tokens and traditional VC equity. Hartmann Capital's early venture fund invested directly in crypto-related projects, including an early investment in an AI-focused crypto company that delivered large gains after the bear market. Hartmann said the firm's current crypto hedge fund is considerably more selective, concentrating on real-world assets, DeFi, and sustainable business models.
Hartmann says the belief that crypto follows a simple four-year cycle, in which investors buy early and profit during the bull market, is fading. He argues that crypto cannot repeat the 2017 or 2021-style returns without underlying growth, and that the key question is where that growth actually comes from. Bitcoin, in his view, retains a clear narrative as digital gold, supported by institutional players, ETFs, and long-term holders. Altcoins face a harder test and must demonstrate real revenue, earnings, and long-term sustainability.
The article notes that industry measurement is changing, with platforms that once emphasized TVL now highlighting revenue, profits, and token buybacks. Since 2021, many tokens have underperformed and interest has cooled, which Hartmann frames as part of a healthy evolution toward fundamentals. Projects that survive this phase may prove stronger and more attractive to serious investors.
Looking ahead, the article suggests the next altcoin cycle may favor projects with real users, real income, and real utility rather than speculation-driven rallies. Hartmann suggests crypto could emerge as a more mature and credible asset class by 2026 or 2027. The piece is an opinion-led commentary and does not present specific fund performance figures or deal values.
The article reports that many venture capital firms now split their strategies between crypto tokens and traditional VC equity. Hartmann Capital's early venture fund invested directly in crypto-related projects, including an early investment in an AI-focused crypto company that delivered large gains after the bear market. Hartmann said the firm's current crypto hedge fund is considerably more selective, concentrating on real-world assets, DeFi, and sustainable business models.
Hartmann says the belief that crypto follows a simple four-year cycle, in which investors buy early and profit during the bull market, is fading. He argues that crypto cannot repeat the 2017 or 2021-style returns without underlying growth, and that the key question is where that growth actually comes from. Bitcoin, in his view, retains a clear narrative as digital gold, supported by institutional players, ETFs, and long-term holders. Altcoins face a harder test and must demonstrate real revenue, earnings, and long-term sustainability.
The article notes that industry measurement is changing, with platforms that once emphasized TVL now highlighting revenue, profits, and token buybacks. Since 2021, many tokens have underperformed and interest has cooled, which Hartmann frames as part of a healthy evolution toward fundamentals. Projects that survive this phase may prove stronger and more attractive to serious investors.
Looking ahead, the article suggests the next altcoin cycle may favor projects with real users, real income, and real utility rather than speculation-driven rallies. Hartmann suggests crypto could emerge as a more mature and credible asset class by 2026 or 2027. The piece is an opinion-led commentary and does not present specific fund performance figures or deal values.
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