Key Takeaways
- • U.S. Tiger Securities analyst Bo Pei declares Bitcoin has entered a new bull-market regime, upgrading from a "late-bear-market" assessment made in July 2026, with a $250,000 cycle target by 2029 or earlier and a maintained Buy rating.
- • Bitcoin recovered 49.1% from its July trough, clearing the May high of $82,814, demonstrating resilience against anticipated policy headwinds including the Clarity Act setback and a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike that triggered only a 5.9% policy-week drawdown.
- • Bitcoin spot ETFs reversed a downtrend with $4.20 billion in net inflows from August 17 through September 21, 2026, including a single-day inflow of $937.3 million on September 21—the largest since the October 2025 cycle peak—signaling renewed institutional demand.
- • The $250,000 target implies a $5.25 trillion network value on a 21-million terminal-supply basis, anchored by relative valuation metrics and on-chain cost-basis analysis; Pei cited persistent fiscal deficits and higher refinancing costs as structural support for Bitcoin's monetary premium over the longer term.
- • Bitcoin recovered above key technical levels including the "True Market Mean" near $76,000–$77,000 and short-term-holder cost basis, with limited expectations for further Fed rate hikes supporting the macroeconomic backdrop for risk assets.
Summary
U.S. Tiger Securities' analyst Bo Pei has declared Bitcoin has entered a new bull-market regime, marking a significant shift from the firm's July 2026 assessment that characterized the market as late-bear phase. The upgrade is anchored in three technical pillars: higher lows, higher highs, and a recovery above critical investor cost bases. Pei maintains a Buy rating and has established a $250,000 cycle target to be achieved by 2029 or earlier, providing institutional investors with a specific price objective within a three-year window.
The bull case draws strength from Bitcoin's demonstrated resilience against anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. The Clarity Act setback and the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike—both expected events—failed to derail the uptrend. The policy-week drawdown was modest at 5.9%, while Bitcoin's lowest price in the 24 hours following the Fed decision was only 1.0% below pre-decision levels. The subsequent recovery has been decisive, with Bitcoin clearing its May high of $82,814, generating cumulative gains of 49.1% from the July trough. This technical strength coincides with renewed demand signals in the spot ETF market, which Pei identifies as crucial evidence of recovering institutional appetite alongside price appreciation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed an extended outflow trend through substantial inflows. From August 17 through September 21, 2026, these products attracted $4.20 billion in net inflows, reversing $8.42 billion in consecutive weekly outflows spanning May through early July. The September 21 single-day inflow of $937.3 million represents the largest daily figure since the October 2025 cycle peak, signaling a meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Bitcoin briefly tested the "True Market Mean" near $76,000–$77,000 but maintained support above the short-term-holder cost basis before recovering above both benchmarks.
The $250,000 target combines relative valuation anchoring with on-chain cost-basis analysis. On a 21-million terminal-supply basis, the target implies a $5.25 trillion network value. From a macroeconomic perspective, Pei argues that a limited rate-hiking cycle preserves Bitcoin's longer-term fiscal thesis. Persistent government deficits and elevated refinancing costs strengthen incentives to contain official financing costs, which structurally supports Bitcoin's "monetary premium" as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal imbalance. This thematic alignment—rather than reliance on rate-cycle dynamics alone—underpins the multi-year bull thesis.
The bull case draws strength from Bitcoin's demonstrated resilience against anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. The Clarity Act setback and the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike—both expected events—failed to derail the uptrend. The policy-week drawdown was modest at 5.9%, while Bitcoin's lowest price in the 24 hours following the Fed decision was only 1.0% below pre-decision levels. The subsequent recovery has been decisive, with Bitcoin clearing its May high of $82,814, generating cumulative gains of 49.1% from the July trough. This technical strength coincides with renewed demand signals in the spot ETF market, which Pei identifies as crucial evidence of recovering institutional appetite alongside price appreciation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed an extended outflow trend through substantial inflows. From August 17 through September 21, 2026, these products attracted $4.20 billion in net inflows, reversing $8.42 billion in consecutive weekly outflows spanning May through early July. The September 21 single-day inflow of $937.3 million represents the largest daily figure since the October 2025 cycle peak, signaling a meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Bitcoin briefly tested the "True Market Mean" near $76,000–$77,000 but maintained support above the short-term-holder cost basis before recovering above both benchmarks.
The $250,000 target combines relative valuation anchoring with on-chain cost-basis analysis. On a 21-million terminal-supply basis, the target implies a $5.25 trillion network value. From a macroeconomic perspective, Pei argues that a limited rate-hiking cycle preserves Bitcoin's longer-term fiscal thesis. Persistent government deficits and elevated refinancing costs strengthen incentives to contain official financing costs, which structurally supports Bitcoin's "monetary premium" as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal imbalance. This thematic alignment—rather than reliance on rate-cycle dynamics alone—underpins the multi-year bull thesis.
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