Key Takeaways
- • Wholesale banks generated record revenues of $660 billion in 2025, and Morgan Stanley Research forecasts 3% growth in its base case, with revenues rising to $770 billion by 2030.
- • Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman estimate digital assets could add up to $7 billion in wholesale bank revenues, or up to 1% of estimated 2030 revenue, once legislation permits institutional crypto activity.
- • The larger risk is revenue migration from traditional settlement rails to digital rails, with potential revenue at risk of 3% to 11% (roughly $21 billion to $82 billion).
- • Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research, says relative performance will depend on how effectively banks respond to demand for tokenized services.
- • Regulatory catalysts include the U.S. GENIUS Act, the pending Clarity Act, and expanded market hours and tokenization plans at Nasdaq, NYSE and DTCC.
Summary
Wholesale banks, which serve corporations, governments and institutional clients, generated record revenues of $660 billion in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley Research. The firm forecasts 3% annual growth in its resilient base case, with revenues reaching $770 billion in 2030. A new joint report from Morgan Stanley and consulting firm Oliver Wyman examines how growing client adoption of digital assets could reshape the sector over the next decade.
The report estimates that banks are likely to expand into the roughly $3 trillion crypto asset class once legislation and regulation permit such activity. That would add up to $7 billion in revenue, or up to 1% of estimated 2030 revenue. The larger impact could come from revenue shifting from traditional finance rails to digital asset rails, particularly if institutional or corporate clients seek faster or instant settlement of cash and securities transactions. Graseck noted that corporate and institutional demand for faster cross-border settlement already affects FX, treasury, liquidity management, collateral management and securities services revenues.
The report argues that banks can defend and expand market share by investing in trusted client gateways, tokenized infrastructure and ecosystems supporting next-generation financial services. Conversely, banks that are unprepared face downside risk, with an estimated 3% to 11% of revenue, or approximately $21 billion to $82 billion, at risk of migrating to digital rails. The range reflects uncertainty over crypto market growth, legislative and regulatory developments, and the pace of client adoption. Graseck said the likely winners will be firms close enough to clients to identify which asset classes have the highest demand for digital rails.
Regulatory momentum is also a factor. Lawmakers approved the GENIUS Act last year, establishing rules for the stablecoin market. Congress could pass the Clarity Act in the second half of 2026, which would define which digital assets fall under SEC versus CFTC oversight and set investor protections. Nasdaq and the NYSE plan to extend trading hours to 23/5 on December 6, which could move markets toward 24/7 access over time, and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) plans to support a broader range of tokenized products starting in October. Graseck said investors should assess whether bank management teams are building capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly built on digital rails.
The report estimates that banks are likely to expand into the roughly $3 trillion crypto asset class once legislation and regulation permit such activity. That would add up to $7 billion in revenue, or up to 1% of estimated 2030 revenue. The larger impact could come from revenue shifting from traditional finance rails to digital asset rails, particularly if institutional or corporate clients seek faster or instant settlement of cash and securities transactions. Graseck noted that corporate and institutional demand for faster cross-border settlement already affects FX, treasury, liquidity management, collateral management and securities services revenues.
The report argues that banks can defend and expand market share by investing in trusted client gateways, tokenized infrastructure and ecosystems supporting next-generation financial services. Conversely, banks that are unprepared face downside risk, with an estimated 3% to 11% of revenue, or approximately $21 billion to $82 billion, at risk of migrating to digital rails. The range reflects uncertainty over crypto market growth, legislative and regulatory developments, and the pace of client adoption. Graseck said the likely winners will be firms close enough to clients to identify which asset classes have the highest demand for digital rails.
Regulatory momentum is also a factor. Lawmakers approved the GENIUS Act last year, establishing rules for the stablecoin market. Congress could pass the Clarity Act in the second half of 2026, which would define which digital assets fall under SEC versus CFTC oversight and set investor protections. Nasdaq and the NYSE plan to extend trading hours to 23/5 on December 6, which could move markets toward 24/7 access over time, and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) plans to support a broader range of tokenized products starting in October. Graseck said investors should assess whether bank management teams are building capabilities for an ecosystem increasingly built on digital rails.
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