Bernstein raises Robinhood price target, cites tokenization and prediction markets

Bernstein has significantly increased its investment thesis on Robinhood Markets, raising its price target by 23% to $160 per share while maintaining an Outperform rating. The upgrade reflects analyst conviction that Robinhood's next growth phase will be driven by prediction markets and tokenized equities rather than traditional cryptocurrency trading—a strategic pivot that Bernstein argues the market has not yet fully priced into the stock, which was trading around $101 at the time of the announcement.

Prediction markets represent the near-term growth catalyst in Bernstein's thesis. The analysts project that prediction market revenue will reach $1.7 billion by 2028, expanding at a 64% compound annual growth rate. Critically, Bernstein forecasts that prediction market revenue will surpass crypto trading revenue for the first time in Q2 2026, signaling a structural shift in the platform's revenue composition. This projection reflects strong near-term momentum, particularly from the 2026 FIFA World Cup driving user engagement and trading activity in event-based prediction contracts.

Beyond near-term catalysts, Bernstein identifies tokenized equities and real-world assets (RWAs) as foundational long-term opportunities. The firm projects that the value of onchain real-world assets will expand from approximately $35 billion today to between $2 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030. Robinhood's proprietary infrastructure—specifically Robinhood Chain, an Arbitrum-based layer-2 blockchain network—enables the platform to develop and deploy on-chain financial products without dependency on third-party blockchains. This technological moat positions Robinhood to compete across multiple "battleground" asset classes, including prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized RWAs, while maintaining platform control and economic capture.

The upgrade is underpinned by strong operational metrics. Robinhood's total platform assets grew 39% year-over-year to $307 billion, driven by continued net deposits, demonstrating sustained customer acquisition and retention despite competitive pressures. Bernstein's analysis suggests the market is currently undervaluing these growth drivers, particularly the structural expansion of prediction markets and the emerging tokenization layer in capital markets infrastructure.