Key Takeaways
- • Bernstein identifies a 60% decline in crypto stocks as a cyclical buying opportunity, maintaining Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure as valuations compress into weak Q1 earnings.
- • Bitcoin projected to establish support near $60,000—aligning with the previous cycle's all-time high and multiple on-chain metrics including miner breakeven levels and long-term holder cost basis.
- • Robinhood valued at 18x 2027 earnings with forecasted 30% revenue growth through 2027, driven by prediction-market expansion and non-trading revenue diversification; crypto represents only ~20% of total revenues.
- • Figure Technologies positioned as pure-play blockchain tokenization business, expected to reach $12.8 billion in loan volumes during 2026, with monthly originations already exceeding $1 billion as of March.
- • Coinbase anticipated to deliver 23% EPS growth in 2026 through exposure to stablecoins, derivatives, and prediction markets, with business mix shifting away from spot trading toward higher-margin segments.
Summary
Bernstein analysts have identified a potential cyclical floor in crypto-related equities, characterizing a roughly 60% pullback in crypto stocks as a significant buying opportunity amid "temporary crypto weak sentiment" driven by geopolitical uncertainty. According to analyst Gautam Chhugani, the sector remains exposed to trillion-dollar addressable markets with years of structural growth ahead, including prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and crypto derivatives. The firm forecasts that crypto equities will establish a bottom ahead of weak first-quarter earnings, positioning current valuations as attractive entry points for institutional capital.
The firm's Bitcoin price trajectory centers on the cryptocurrency establishing substantial support near $60,000, the previous cycle's all-time high. This technical level represents a convergence of multiple supporting indicators: the average acquisition price for coins held between six months and three years ($58,000–$62,000 range), Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, realized price metrics, and miner breakeven levels. Bernstein characterizes this region as a "high-probability accumulation zone" where institutional buying interest typically intensifies, suggesting the $60,000 support level marks a late-cycle correction rather than the onset of prolonged bear market conditions.
Bernstein rates Robinhood and Figure as particularly resilient to crypto trading volatility, given their business model diversification. Robinhood trades at 18 times 2027 estimated earnings with projected 30% revenue growth through 2027, supported by expanding prediction-market activity and non-trading revenue streams; crypto represents approximately 20% of total revenues. Figure Technologies, characterized as a pure-play blockchain tokenization business, is forecast to reach $12.8 billion in loan volumes during 2026, with monthly originations already surpassing $1 billion in March.
For Coinbase, Bernstein expects the equity to deliver 23% earnings-per-share growth in 2026 as the business mix continues shifting away from spot trading toward higher-margin derivatives, stablecoins, and prediction-market revenue. The firm notes Coinbase trades at 12 times 2027 estimated earnings, while Figure trades at 25 times 2027 estimated EBITDA. All three equities maintain Outperform ratings, reflecting Bernstein's conviction that the crypto-equities complex is approaching a cyclical floor with substantial upside exposure to structural growth markets.
The firm's Bitcoin price trajectory centers on the cryptocurrency establishing substantial support near $60,000, the previous cycle's all-time high. This technical level represents a convergence of multiple supporting indicators: the average acquisition price for coins held between six months and three years ($58,000–$62,000 range), Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, realized price metrics, and miner breakeven levels. Bernstein characterizes this region as a "high-probability accumulation zone" where institutional buying interest typically intensifies, suggesting the $60,000 support level marks a late-cycle correction rather than the onset of prolonged bear market conditions.
Bernstein rates Robinhood and Figure as particularly resilient to crypto trading volatility, given their business model diversification. Robinhood trades at 18 times 2027 estimated earnings with projected 30% revenue growth through 2027, supported by expanding prediction-market activity and non-trading revenue streams; crypto represents approximately 20% of total revenues. Figure Technologies, characterized as a pure-play blockchain tokenization business, is forecast to reach $12.8 billion in loan volumes during 2026, with monthly originations already surpassing $1 billion in March.
For Coinbase, Bernstein expects the equity to deliver 23% earnings-per-share growth in 2026 as the business mix continues shifting away from spot trading toward higher-margin derivatives, stablecoins, and prediction-market revenue. The firm notes Coinbase trades at 12 times 2027 estimated earnings, while Figure trades at 25 times 2027 estimated EBITDA. All three equities maintain Outperform ratings, reflecting Bernstein's conviction that the crypto-equities complex is approaching a cyclical floor with substantial upside exposure to structural growth markets.
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