Key Takeaways
- • Total crypto market capitalization fell 0.7% over 24 hours to $2.74T, returning to the lower boundary of its recent trading range, per Investing.com and FxPro analysts.
- • Bitcoin traded near $81K and was cautiously rising toward $81.8K at the start of European trading, holding close to its 50-day moving average.
- • Total open interest in Bitcoin and derivatives rose to $41.6 billion according to Santiment, raising the risk of mass liquidations as traders add leverage.
- • The crypto sentiment index pulled back to 50, the midpoint of its range, for the second time since late August, with analysts calling the current test of the bull market decisive.
- • Raoul Pal of Real Vision cited increased liquidity, Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar as the key conditions for a new crypto bull cycle.
Summary
The crypto market declined 0.7% over the past 24 hours to $2.74 trillion, returning to the lower boundary of its recent trading range, according to Investing.com. The market has not yet lived up to the "Uptober" expectation, but buyers continue to step in on dips and are defending the area around August's highs. FxPro analysts describe this as a possible case of resistance turning into support. If that holds, consolidation could be followed by an upward move above the recent high; if support fails, a sharp decline is considered likely. Among the most liquid coins, gainers outnumbered losers by roughly 1 to 3, with the top performers rising between 4.2% and 7.3%.
Bitcoin traded near $81,000 after closing Thursday at around that level and was rising toward $81,800 as European trading began. The leading cryptocurrency sits close to its 50-day moving average, and the current support coincides with resistance zones seen in September and May. Analysts note that the convergence of these levels reflects the significance of the moment rather than the strength of the support. A sharp downside break could repeat the May pattern, while a decisive rebound could spark a rally similar to August's.
Sentiment has moved back to 50, touching the midpoint of its range for the second time since late August. The analysts had treated a decisive move from the lower to upper half as a shift in sentiment, and they say the bull market is now being tested. In mid-September, a similar dip in sentiment drew buyers and preceded a 15% rally, but buyers may stay on the sidelines this time given weakness in stock markets.
Derivatives activity is also rising. Santiment puts total open interest in Bitcoin and derivatives at $41.6 billion, and traders are increasingly opening leveraged positions, which the report flags as a risk of mass liquidations. On the macro side, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said increased liquidity, Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar are the key conditions for a crypto bull cycle, noting that capital has been diverted toward AI investments. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said rising Bitcoin hash rate after a first-half decline strengthens the network and is a bullish signal for long-term holders. Barchart warned that a slump in Chinese equities, which have fallen for a record 11 consecutive weeks amid weakness in AI shares, could spill over into Bitcoin if the AI trade unwinds in the US.
Bitcoin traded near $81,000 after closing Thursday at around that level and was rising toward $81,800 as European trading began. The leading cryptocurrency sits close to its 50-day moving average, and the current support coincides with resistance zones seen in September and May. Analysts note that the convergence of these levels reflects the significance of the moment rather than the strength of the support. A sharp downside break could repeat the May pattern, while a decisive rebound could spark a rally similar to August's.
Sentiment has moved back to 50, touching the midpoint of its range for the second time since late August. The analysts had treated a decisive move from the lower to upper half as a shift in sentiment, and they say the bull market is now being tested. In mid-September, a similar dip in sentiment drew buyers and preceded a 15% rally, but buyers may stay on the sidelines this time given weakness in stock markets.
Derivatives activity is also rising. Santiment puts total open interest in Bitcoin and derivatives at $41.6 billion, and traders are increasingly opening leveraged positions, which the report flags as a risk of mass liquidations. On the macro side, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said increased liquidity, Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar are the key conditions for a crypto bull cycle, noting that capital has been diverted toward AI investments. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said rising Bitcoin hash rate after a first-half decline strengthens the network and is a bullish signal for long-term holders. Barchart warned that a slump in Chinese equities, which have fallen for a record 11 consecutive weeks amid weakness in AI shares, could spill over into Bitcoin if the AI trade unwinds in the US.
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