Key Takeaways
- • Charles Schwab's Adam Lynch, Director of Equity Research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, warned that midterm elections could "grind [the crypto industry] to a halt" if they change who holds power in Washington, while remaining "somewhat optimistic" about a bipartisan deal.
- • Bitcoin dipped to around $80,000 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 18, before rebounding; it was trading at $81,545, down 0.6% over 24 hours, and was down about 7% year to date.
- • Ethereum has underperformed, down about 18% year to date, with Lynch saying leverage amplified recent swings and forced out long positions opened near $87,000 earlier in the month.
- • Lynch cited nearly $60 billion in cumulative inflows into US Bitcoin exchange-traded products since January 2024 as evidence of Bitcoin's maturing role in markets.
- • Charles Schwab rolled out direct Bitcoin purchases to all eligible retail clients among its 40 million clients on Friday.
Summary
Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday and Saturday after dipping to around $80,000, its lowest level since September 18. Stocktwits reported Bitcoin trading at $81,545, down 0.6% over the prior 24 hours. Lynch attributed the sharper recent swings to leverage, noting that traders who had taken long positions near $87,000 earlier in the month were wiped out and that the rebound also forced out some short sellers. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained bearish for Bitcoin, with watcher counts down nearly 47% over 30 days.
Ethereum has fared worse, according to Lynch, who said it "hit a little bit harder this month" while Bitcoin had "been the better performer." Ethereum is down roughly 18% year to date versus Bitcoin's 7% decline. Lynch maintained that Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals are intact, pointing to nearly $60 billion in net inflows into US Bitcoin exchange-traded products since January 2024.
On the policy front, crypto legislation has stalled in Congress after the market structure bill failed to pass. Lynch said regulators are advancing independently: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission began a rulemaking process about ten days earlier to build a "tailored framework for certain crypto transactions," and the Securities and Exchange Commission is developing a broader digital asset framework. President Donald Trump has pledged to make the US the "crypto capital of the world," signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and signed the GENIUS Act, the first federal stablecoin law, last year.
Opposition remains a factor. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) pressed the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in May over trust charters granted to crypto firms including Ripple, Coinbase and Paxos, and has urged the Federal Reserve and Treasury not to use taxpayer money to rescue crypto investors. A shift in power could give critics like Warren greater influence over that agenda.
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