Key Takeaways
- • Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.top mining pool, projects Bitcoin could decline to $44,016 by late October 2026, representing a 65.1% drop from all-time highs based on four-year market cycle analysis.
- • The forecast is grounded in historical comparison of Bitcoin's three previous bear markets, which experienced maximum declines of 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6% respectively—suggesting the current cycle has not yet matched prior downturns in depth or duration.
- • Supplemental sources indicate Zhuoer's broader prediction range extends to $42,000–$44,000 between October and December 2026, based on the mNAV ratio (Strategy's market cap to Network Value Adjusted Price), with some sources noting Bitcoin ETF outflows of $469 million coinciding with the forecast publication.
- • Cycle-based projections should not serve as sole investment decision criteria; macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and technological advancements remain material variables that can alter cryptocurrency price trajectories.
- • The prediction underscores growing institutional awareness of cyclical patterns in Bitcoin markets, relevant for portfolio construction and risk management strategies ahead of the next halving event.
Summary
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the China-based BTC.top mining pool, has issued a significant price forecast projecting Bitcoin could fall to $44,016 by late October 2026. The prediction is rooted in analysis of Bitcoin's historical four-year market cycles, comparing current market conditions to three previous bear market episodes. According to Zhuoer's data, those prior cycles experienced maximum declines of 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6% respectively. His current analysis suggests a 65.1% drawdown from all-time highs, implying that the present bear market has yet to reach the magnitude or duration of previous downturns, thereby indicating additional downside risk remains.
Supplemental sources clarify that Zhuoer's prediction extends across a broader timeframe and price band, with forecasts suggesting Bitcoin could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 during the October-December 2026 period. The analysis reportedly employs the mNAV ratio—a sentiment indicator derived from Strategy's market capitalization relative to Network Value Adjusted Price—as a methodological framework. Market reaction to these projections has been measurable; one source notes Bitcoin ETF investors withdrew $469 million on June 24 following publication of the forecast.
For institutional investors and alternative asset managers, such cycle-based analysis offers a structured framework for anticipating volatility and positioning risk management strategies. However, the sources emphasize critical limitations: cyclical patterns provide useful context but should not constitute the sole basis for investment decisions. Macroeconomic variables, regulatory shifts, and technological developments all represent material factors capable of altering Bitcoin's trajectory independent of historical cycle patterns. The volatility and external sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets remain substantial considerations for portfolio construction. Zhuoer's forecast joins a broader analytical chorus suggesting further Bitcoin downside before the next network halving event, reflecting institutional engagement with long-term cycle theory in digital asset valuation.
Supplemental sources clarify that Zhuoer's prediction extends across a broader timeframe and price band, with forecasts suggesting Bitcoin could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 during the October-December 2026 period. The analysis reportedly employs the mNAV ratio—a sentiment indicator derived from Strategy's market capitalization relative to Network Value Adjusted Price—as a methodological framework. Market reaction to these projections has been measurable; one source notes Bitcoin ETF investors withdrew $469 million on June 24 following publication of the forecast.
For institutional investors and alternative asset managers, such cycle-based analysis offers a structured framework for anticipating volatility and positioning risk management strategies. However, the sources emphasize critical limitations: cyclical patterns provide useful context but should not constitute the sole basis for investment decisions. Macroeconomic variables, regulatory shifts, and technological developments all represent material factors capable of altering Bitcoin's trajectory independent of historical cycle patterns. The volatility and external sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets remain substantial considerations for portfolio construction. Zhuoer's forecast joins a broader analytical chorus suggesting further Bitcoin downside before the next network halving event, reflecting institutional engagement with long-term cycle theory in digital asset valuation.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.