Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise Asset Management raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast to $1.6 million by 2036, with a base case target of $1,599,766 per coin, according to its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released Oct. 28.
- • The base case assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of a projected $109.8 trillion gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market by 2036 and implies 34.3% annualized returns over the model's 10-year period.
- • The revision lifts the base case by $300,000, or 23.1%, from the firm's August 2025 forecast of $1.3 million by 2035, which carried a 28.3% annualized return.
- • Bitwise sees institutional investors allocating 1% to 5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, implying $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion in potential demand against roughly $14 billion of new annual supply.
- • Bitwise's bear and bull scenarios are $130,686 and $3,667,911 respectively, underscoring the wide dispersion embedded in the model.
Summary
Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast to $1.6 million by 2036, citing institutional demand, constrained new supply and growing demand for assets that can hedge currency debasement. The forecast appears in the firm's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released on Oct. 28. Its base case target is $1,599,766 per coin, with bear and bull scenarios of $130,686 and $3,667,911. The valuation table uses a Sept. 30 Bitcoin price of $83,557 as its reference point.
The framework rests on Bitcoin's role as a store of value. Bitwise projects the combined gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market will reach $109.8 trillion by 2036, with Bitcoin capturing 25%. The model assigns smaller contributions to institutional portfolios, emerging-market currencies, offshore wealth, national reserves, US corporate treasuries and remittances. Its base case assumes 2.5% penetration of both national treasury reserves and US corporate treasuries, and a 1% institutional allocation against a projected $303.5 trillion market. Using the rounded table inputs, the store-of-value component alone contributes approximately $1.31 million per coin before other categories are added, according to the article's calculation.
In its announcement, Bitwise said institutional investors could allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the coming decade, implying potential demand of $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion. That compares with roughly $14 billion in new Bitcoin produced annually at its reference valuation. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan linked the revised view to regulatory progress, institutional adoption and demand for hard assets including gold, saying, "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year." The firm forecasts annual returns of 6.7% for US equities and 10.8% for private equity, both below its Bitcoin estimate. Bitwise expects the historic four-year cycle to weaken as institutions account for a larger share of the investor base, while warning that substantial downturns remain possible. Its research projects average volatility of 27.8% and an average correlation of 0.43 with US stocks over the next decade. Quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal are identified as key risks.
The article compares the forecast with earlier work from other managers that uses different assumptions. ARK Invest's April 2025 study set 2030 bear, base and bull cases of roughly $300,000, $710,000 and $1.5 million, and a later Nov. 6, 2025 report cited Cathie Wood revising her bullish target to $1.2 million from $1.5 million, citing stablecoins taking over part of the emerging-market payments and savings role ARK had expected Bitcoin to fill.
Market commentary from Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, characterizes recent trading as an accumulation period, though he said positioning remains somewhat complacent. Ko noted positive funding rates, partially recovered open interest from September lows, and Bitcoin holding above its 50-week moving average for four to five weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $300 million in net inflows, ending two weeks of outflows, though Bitcoin briefly recovered toward $84,000 before slipping below $80,000. Ko also flagged continued Ethereum underperformance, with ETH/BTC near 0.029 and spot Ethereum ETFs posting a fourth consecutive week of net outflows. He cited Brent crude near $115 and the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.97% as macro factors.
The framework rests on Bitcoin's role as a store of value. Bitwise projects the combined gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market will reach $109.8 trillion by 2036, with Bitcoin capturing 25%. The model assigns smaller contributions to institutional portfolios, emerging-market currencies, offshore wealth, national reserves, US corporate treasuries and remittances. Its base case assumes 2.5% penetration of both national treasury reserves and US corporate treasuries, and a 1% institutional allocation against a projected $303.5 trillion market. Using the rounded table inputs, the store-of-value component alone contributes approximately $1.31 million per coin before other categories are added, according to the article's calculation.
In its announcement, Bitwise said institutional investors could allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the coming decade, implying potential demand of $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion. That compares with roughly $14 billion in new Bitcoin produced annually at its reference valuation. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan linked the revised view to regulatory progress, institutional adoption and demand for hard assets including gold, saying, "We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year." The firm forecasts annual returns of 6.7% for US equities and 10.8% for private equity, both below its Bitcoin estimate. Bitwise expects the historic four-year cycle to weaken as institutions account for a larger share of the investor base, while warning that substantial downturns remain possible. Its research projects average volatility of 27.8% and an average correlation of 0.43 with US stocks over the next decade. Quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal are identified as key risks.
The article compares the forecast with earlier work from other managers that uses different assumptions. ARK Invest's April 2025 study set 2030 bear, base and bull cases of roughly $300,000, $710,000 and $1.5 million, and a later Nov. 6, 2025 report cited Cathie Wood revising her bullish target to $1.2 million from $1.5 million, citing stablecoins taking over part of the emerging-market payments and savings role ARK had expected Bitcoin to fill.
Market commentary from Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, characterizes recent trading as an accumulation period, though he said positioning remains somewhat complacent. Ko noted positive funding rates, partially recovered open interest from September lows, and Bitcoin holding above its 50-week moving average for four to five weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $300 million in net inflows, ending two weeks of outflows, though Bitcoin briefly recovered toward $84,000 before slipping below $80,000. Ko also flagged continued Ethereum underperformance, with ETH/BTC near 0.029 and spot Ethereum ETFs posting a fourth consecutive week of net outflows. He cited Brent crude near $115 and the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.97% as macro factors.
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