Key Takeaways
- • US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.07 billion over the first three sessions of the week to October 23, then lost $773.5 million over the final two, leaving a provisional net inflow of $301.2 million according to preliminary Farside data.
- • Thursday's $635.6 million in outflows was the largest daily withdrawal since June, and the week ended a run of two straight weeks of outflows; US spot bitcoin ETFs remain about $313.5 million in net outflows for October so far.
- • Coinbase Institutional identifies $80,000 to $82,000 as key support, anchored by an estimated average ETF cost basis of $81,300 and the 50-day moving average near $81,700; a sustained break could expose bitcoin to $73,000 to $75,000.
- • ETFs have overtaken corporate treasuries as the main source of steady demand since August, attracting about $6.4 billion versus $1.5 billion for treasury companies, while Strategy has cut its weekly purchases to a few hundred coins.
- • Ether ETFs posted $220.7 million in net outflows for the week, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $233.2 million of withdrawals.
Summary
US spot bitcoin ETF demand returned in the week to October 23 but did not hold. According to preliminary Farside data, the funds took in about $1.07 billion over Monday through Wednesday, including $526.7 million on Monday, $23.2 million on Tuesday and $524.8 million on Wednesday. They then lost $773.5 million over Thursday and Friday, leaving a provisional net inflow of $301.2 million for the week. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led early inflows with $665.2 million on Monday, its largest single-day inflow since October 2025, but it also saw $254.1 million leave on Thursday and $110.3 million on Friday, finishing the week with net inflows of $565.7 million.
The primary driver of the reversal was Thursday's $635.6 million in outflows, the largest daily withdrawal since June. Bitcoin fell about 3.45% over the two days of outflows and briefly dipped below $80,000 over the weekend before recovering toward $80,600. Early-week inflows did not lift price meaningfully. Even with the weekly inflow, US spot bitcoin ETFs remain about $313.5 million in net outflows for October to date.
Coinbase Institutional has identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a key support zone, combining an estimated average ETF cost basis of $81,300 with the 50-day moving average near $81,700. The cost basis marks roughly where the typical ETF investor breaks even. Coinbase warns that a sustained break below the zone could expose bitcoin to $73,000 to $75,000, and that holders may sell rather than wait if price stays underwater.
The demand backdrop has shifted. Coinbase Institutional notes that corporate treasury companies bought about $14.5 billion of bitcoin in the first half of 2026, while US spot ETFs recorded nearly $5 billion in net selling. Since August the pattern has reversed, with ETFs attracting about $6.4 billion against $1.5 billion for corporate treasuries. Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, has reduced weekly purchases to a few hundred coins as it prioritizes buybacks ahead of earnings, which increases the weight of ETF flows on price.
Macro conditions add risk. US producer prices rose 1.3% month on month in September, the largest increase since March 2022, and markets have raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Ether ETFs also had a weaker week, with $220.7 million in net outflows and ETHA accounting for $233.2 million of withdrawals over four straight days of losses before a small group-wide inflow on Friday. Key near-term markers are whether bitcoin holds the $80,000 to $82,000 zone and whether the next week of Farside data shows renewed inflows.
The primary driver of the reversal was Thursday's $635.6 million in outflows, the largest daily withdrawal since June. Bitcoin fell about 3.45% over the two days of outflows and briefly dipped below $80,000 over the weekend before recovering toward $80,600. Early-week inflows did not lift price meaningfully. Even with the weekly inflow, US spot bitcoin ETFs remain about $313.5 million in net outflows for October to date.
Coinbase Institutional has identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a key support zone, combining an estimated average ETF cost basis of $81,300 with the 50-day moving average near $81,700. The cost basis marks roughly where the typical ETF investor breaks even. Coinbase warns that a sustained break below the zone could expose bitcoin to $73,000 to $75,000, and that holders may sell rather than wait if price stays underwater.
The demand backdrop has shifted. Coinbase Institutional notes that corporate treasury companies bought about $14.5 billion of bitcoin in the first half of 2026, while US spot ETFs recorded nearly $5 billion in net selling. Since August the pattern has reversed, with ETFs attracting about $6.4 billion against $1.5 billion for corporate treasuries. Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, has reduced weekly purchases to a few hundred coins as it prioritizes buybacks ahead of earnings, which increases the weight of ETF flows on price.
Macro conditions add risk. US producer prices rose 1.3% month on month in September, the largest increase since March 2022, and markets have raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Ether ETFs also had a weaker week, with $220.7 million in net outflows and ETHA accounting for $233.2 million of withdrawals over four straight days of losses before a small group-wide inflow on Friday. Key near-term markers are whether bitcoin holds the $80,000 to $82,000 zone and whether the next week of Farside data shows renewed inflows.
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