Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $679 million in net outflows last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since late June, while Ether ETFs posted roughly $542 million in net outflows.
- • Bitcoin fell from about $86,000-$87,000 to roughly $80,400 on Thursday before recovering above $83,000, after losing the inflow support behind its six-week rally.
- • The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to a record high on earnings-growth expectations, while crypto lacks comparable earnings support and depends more heavily on new capital inflows, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to U.S. equity volatility.
- • Federal Reserve minutes indicated most officials expected another rate increase this year; markets priced about a 20% probability of a hike at the end of October as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%.
- • Bitcoin faces added downside if the 30-year Treasury yield breaks above 5.64%, the level reached on Sept. 30, or if resistance near $82,500 holds. The September consumer price index, due Oct. 14, is the next key catalyst.
Summary
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $679 million in net outflows last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since late June, according to TokenPost. Ether ETFs posted roughly $542 million in net outflows over the same period. The withdrawals add pressure to a market that has lost the inflow support behind its six-week rally, and the reporting frames Bitcoin as increasingly sensitive to volatility in U.S. equities.
Bitcoin dropped from about $86,000-$87,000 to roughly $80,400 on Thursday before recovering above $83,000 and moving back above $82,500. The divergence from equities was notable: the S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week to a record high, supported by expectations for earnings growth. Crypto markets lack comparable earnings support and rely more heavily on new capital inflows, which have weakened.
Monetary policy expectations are a central pressure point. Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that most officials expected another rate increase this year. Markets priced about a 20% probability of a rate hike at the end of October, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%. Bitcoin would face added downside risk if the 30-year Treasury yield breaks above 5.64%, the level reached on Sept. 30, or if the price continues to face resistance near $82,500.
Attention now turns to the September consumer price index, scheduled for release on Oct. 14, which will indicate whether energy inflation is spreading into core inflation. Financial institution earnings and results from artificial intelligence-related companies are also in focus. Until long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF flows turn net positive, the source assesses Bitcoin as vulnerable.
Bitcoin dropped from about $86,000-$87,000 to roughly $80,400 on Thursday before recovering above $83,000 and moving back above $82,500. The divergence from equities was notable: the S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week to a record high, supported by expectations for earnings growth. Crypto markets lack comparable earnings support and rely more heavily on new capital inflows, which have weakened.
Monetary policy expectations are a central pressure point. Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that most officials expected another rate increase this year. Markets priced about a 20% probability of a rate hike at the end of October, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%. Bitcoin would face added downside risk if the 30-year Treasury yield breaks above 5.64%, the level reached on Sept. 30, or if the price continues to face resistance near $82,500.
Attention now turns to the September consumer price index, scheduled for release on Oct. 14, which will indicate whether energy inflation is spreading into core inflation. Financial institution earnings and results from artificial intelligence-related companies are also in focus. Until long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF flows turn net positive, the source assesses Bitcoin as vulnerable.
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