Key Takeaways
- • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday, the fourth straight session of redemptions and the smallest daily outflow of the run, bringing November-to-date withdrawals to roughly $1.6 billion according to SoSoValue data.
- • BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shed about $78 million on Tuesday, its eighth consecutive losing session, and has lost roughly $1.73 billion since Oct. 30; Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the lone major-issuer inflow at about $20 million.
- • CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index fell to 20 from 90 on Oct. 13, and apparent demand contracted by 284,000 BTC over 30 days, the fastest pace since March 2025.
- • Bitcoin traded near $73,700, just above its roughly $73,125 200-day moving average, with the October CPI and Friday's producer price data ahead of the Fed's Dec. 9 decision serving as the next catalysts.
- • Equity ETFs absorbed roughly $12 billion a day over five sessions, with all 17 top inflow leaders holding stocks, indicating a rotation out of crypto rather than a flight to cash.
Summary
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of about $95 million on Tuesday, the fourth consecutive session of redemptions and the smallest of the current run, according to flow data. Total November outflows have reached roughly $1.6 billion per SoSoValue. Daily outflows were $430.2 million on Nov. 5 and $411.9 million on Nov. 6, easing to $201 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors figures.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust remained the main source of selling, shedding about $78 million on Tuesday and roughly $1.73 billion since Oct. 30. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) was the only notable inflow among major issuers, taking in about $20 million, which was insufficient to offset the broader retreat.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that all 17 of the top U.S.-listed ETFs by inflows over the previous five sessions held equities, with roughly $12 billion a day flowing into the category, including Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV). The flow analysis characterized the move as a reallocation across asset classes rather than a shift to cash.
Underlying demand indicators remain weak. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index dropped to 20 on Monday from 90 on Oct. 13, a reading the firm described as "extremely bearish," while noting similar conditions have historically preceded local bottoms. It flagged $73,200 as a key support level. Bitcoin was trading near $73,700 to $74,000 on Thursday morning, about 5.2% lower over seven days according to CoinGecko, with the 20-day average at $77,740 and the 50-day at $81,141. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 28, its third straight day in fear territory.
The macro backdrop is pressuring crypto. October consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month and core prices 0.3%, a tenth above forecasts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point December hike should be considered if core inflation runs around 0.3% or higher, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sees at least two more quarter-point moves as necessary. Futures markets, per CME FedWatch data cited by Nexo, price a quarter-point move as the base case for the Dec. 9 meeting. Friday's October producer price release is the next test, following a 6.3% year-on-year increase in the September reading. Equities have recovered, with Nvidia up about 5% premarket on Wednesday, while Bitcoin has not participated; total crypto market capitalization stood at about $2.4 trillion. Analysts will watch whether a break above $75,000, and eventually the 20-day average, signals the short-term downtrend has ended.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust remained the main source of selling, shedding about $78 million on Tuesday and roughly $1.73 billion since Oct. 30. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) was the only notable inflow among major issuers, taking in about $20 million, which was insufficient to offset the broader retreat.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that all 17 of the top U.S.-listed ETFs by inflows over the previous five sessions held equities, with roughly $12 billion a day flowing into the category, including Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV). The flow analysis characterized the move as a reallocation across asset classes rather than a shift to cash.
Underlying demand indicators remain weak. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index dropped to 20 on Monday from 90 on Oct. 13, a reading the firm described as "extremely bearish," while noting similar conditions have historically preceded local bottoms. It flagged $73,200 as a key support level. Bitcoin was trading near $73,700 to $74,000 on Thursday morning, about 5.2% lower over seven days according to CoinGecko, with the 20-day average at $77,740 and the 50-day at $81,141. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 28, its third straight day in fear territory.
The macro backdrop is pressuring crypto. October consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month and core prices 0.3%, a tenth above forecasts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point December hike should be considered if core inflation runs around 0.3% or higher, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sees at least two more quarter-point moves as necessary. Futures markets, per CME FedWatch data cited by Nexo, price a quarter-point move as the base case for the Dec. 9 meeting. Friday's October producer price release is the next test, following a 6.3% year-on-year increase in the September reading. Equities have recovered, with Nvidia up about 5% premarket on Wednesday, while Bitcoin has not participated; total crypto market capitalization stood at about $2.4 trillion. Analysts will watch whether a break above $75,000, and eventually the 20-day average, signals the short-term downtrend has ended.
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