Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin futures across the curve to 30 October traded above 6% annualized, against about 4% on cash, while one-month skew stood at zero, according to BIT Weekly's October 5, 2026 issue.
- • BTC settled between $82,959 and $85,875 in the week to October 4 and reached $86,066 at Monday midday, up 3.1%, with ETH up 2.1% to $2,716.
- • Leveraged long positions returned to futures over the full month of September, even as the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 24-year high.
- • Options open interest thickened at $95,000 (29,000 contracts) and $100,000 (22,000 contracts) while the $90,000 strike held flat at 26,000 contracts.
- • The October 10, 2025 liquidation of more than $19 billion in crypto leverage in roughly one day remains the reference point for leverage-driven downside risk.
Summary
Bitcoin futures pricing in early October 2026 showed leveraged demand returning to the derivatives market, according to BIT Weekly's October 5, 2026 issue. Every bitcoin futures contract maturing by 30 October traded above 6% annualized, compared with roughly 4% on cash, while one-month skew remained at zero. The publication attributed the renewed leverage appetite to soft inflation data and a 29,000 payroll print, which together all but ended an October rise in the broader market. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 24-year high, and premium sellers who lost money in September returned to the options market.
Spot prices moved on macroeconomic data within the hour in both directions. Bitcoin settled between $82,959 and $85,875 in the week to October 4, finishing its week near the upper edge of its trading range. A softer core PCE reading on Wednesday pushed BTC to $85,500 intraday before it settled near $83,600, while Friday's weaker payrolls data lifted prices toward $87,000. Ether lagged, rising 2.1% to $2,716, and its spot ratio to bitcoin fell for a second consecutive week, to 0.0316.
Options positioning pointed to a thicker resistance map above spot. The roughly 8,500-contract call layer at $85,000 was identified as first support, about 1.2% below spot, while $90,000 (26,000 contracts) and $95,000 (29,000 contracts) formed the largest walls above the market. BIT Weekly noted that the $95,000 and $100,000 strikes grew during the week while $90,000 held flat. Separately, reporting on the October 10, 2025 liquidation event, which saw more than $19 billion in crypto leverage unwound in roughly a day, serves as historical context for the current debate over whether excessive leverage could again amplify a sell-off.
Spot prices moved on macroeconomic data within the hour in both directions. Bitcoin settled between $82,959 and $85,875 in the week to October 4, finishing its week near the upper edge of its trading range. A softer core PCE reading on Wednesday pushed BTC to $85,500 intraday before it settled near $83,600, while Friday's weaker payrolls data lifted prices toward $87,000. Ether lagged, rising 2.1% to $2,716, and its spot ratio to bitcoin fell for a second consecutive week, to 0.0316.
Options positioning pointed to a thicker resistance map above spot. The roughly 8,500-contract call layer at $85,000 was identified as first support, about 1.2% below spot, while $90,000 (26,000 contracts) and $95,000 (29,000 contracts) formed the largest walls above the market. BIT Weekly noted that the $95,000 and $100,000 strikes grew during the week while $90,000 held flat. Separately, reporting on the October 10, 2025 liquidation event, which saw more than $19 billion in crypto leverage unwound in roughly a day, serves as historical context for the current debate over whether excessive leverage could again amplify a sell-off.
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