Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin is holding above $80K as selling pressure eases, with whales (holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) shifting their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 BTC to positive 5,230 BTC, according to on-chain data cited by Investing.com.
- • Demand remains weak: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $635M in net outflows on October 22, their largest daily loss since June 25, and Binance stablecoin reserves fell to $41.6B, the lowest level this year.
- • Key resistance sits at $85K to $87.5K, where the largest short liquidation clusters and heavy spot sell orders are concentrated; a daily close below $80K could push the next focus to $77.6K.
- • The October 28 FOMC decision is the main near-term catalyst, with markets pricing over a 90% chance of a hold but above 70% odds of a December hike.
Summary
Bitcoin is holding above $80K even as a broad market selloff pressures risk assets, with AI stocks down sharply and spot gold falling below $4,000 this week. According to Investing.com, on-chain data shows buyers returning near $80K, with new bids appearing by October 20 after the October 15 selloff wiped out most orders at that level. Whale activity has turned constructive, and realized profits over the past week have fallen to roughly half of September's peak, easing sell pressure.
Despite these improvements, fresh demand has not recovered. Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand has improved but remains negative, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero indicating soft U.S. buying, and STH-SOPR is just below 1, meaning short-term holders are selling at small losses. Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $635M in net outflows on October 22, their biggest daily loss since June 25, after earlier October inflows failed to prove consistent. Stablecoin reserves on centralized exchanges are also declining, with Binance's reserves down $6.3B since April.
The $80K to $81.5K zone represents the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders, making it a focal point. Upside targets include $85K and $87K, the two largest short liquidation clusters, followed by heavy spot sell orders at $86.5K to $87.5K and the $86.7K average cost basis of six-to-twelve-month holders. On the downside, a daily close below $80K would push ETF and corporate holders into average losses, with $77.6K, Bitcoin's True Market Mean, the next area of interest.
The week ahead features the FOMC rate decision on October 28, U.S. Q3 GDP on October 29, and September PCE inflation data on the same day. Per the article, September CPI came in hotter than expected, and attention will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks regarding a possible December hike and the inflation impact of rising oil prices.
Despite these improvements, fresh demand has not recovered. Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand has improved but remains negative, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero indicating soft U.S. buying, and STH-SOPR is just below 1, meaning short-term holders are selling at small losses. Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $635M in net outflows on October 22, their biggest daily loss since June 25, after earlier October inflows failed to prove consistent. Stablecoin reserves on centralized exchanges are also declining, with Binance's reserves down $6.3B since April.
The $80K to $81.5K zone represents the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders, making it a focal point. Upside targets include $85K and $87K, the two largest short liquidation clusters, followed by heavy spot sell orders at $86.5K to $87.5K and the $86.7K average cost basis of six-to-twelve-month holders. On the downside, a daily close below $80K would push ETF and corporate holders into average losses, with $77.6K, Bitcoin's True Market Mean, the next area of interest.
The week ahead features the FOMC rate decision on October 28, U.S. Q3 GDP on October 29, and September PCE inflation data on the same day. Per the article, September CPI came in hotter than expected, and attention will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks regarding a possible December hike and the inflation impact of rising oil prices.
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