Key Takeaways
- • MSCI announced on Wednesday it will remove Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake from its global indexes, effective December 1 from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indexes, with index funds potentially selling Strategy shares by November 30.
- • Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 850,364 BTC, faces potential forced share sales that could weigh on Bitcoin treasury company stocks and indirectly pressure BTC sentiment.
- • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $299.90 million on Wednesday per SoSoValue, the fifth straight day of withdrawals.
- • BTC traded near $73,727 on Thursday, below the 200-day, 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $76,384, $77,411 and $78,701, with RSI near 34.
- • K33 data suggests Bitcoin's near-term direction has tracked the Nasdaq's rebound sustainability, with a median 21% loss in cases where Nasdaq rebounds failed.
Summary
Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below $73,800 after a decline of more than 1.5% over the week, according to FXStreet. Sentiment deteriorated after MSCI, the global index provider, announced on Wednesday that it will drop Strategy (MSTR) and other bitcoin-holding companies from its global indexes. Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 850,364 BTC. Index funds tracking the affected benchmarks may need to sell Strategy shares by November 30. Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed company that also accumulates bitcoin, and UK-based uranium investment company Yellow Cake were also on the exclusion list. The companies will be removed from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indexes effective December 1.
Although the decision directly affects equity valuations rather than Bitcoin holdings, the article notes that forced selling could weigh on these treasury companies, which serve as an institutional gateway to bitcoin exposure, and could undermine investor confidence in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies. Institutional demand also softened, with SoSoValue data showing spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $299.90 million on Wednesday, the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals.
Bitcoin has underperformed the Nasdaq this week. The Nasdaq rose 3.55% on Monday while BTC gained 0.69%, and on Wednesday the index rose nearly 2% against Bitcoin's 0.30% gain. According to a K33 report cited by FXStreet, Bitcoin's subsequent 20-day performance followed the Nasdaq's direction in all five observed instances. In a sample of 16 strong Nasdaq rebounds, BTC gained in eight of nine cases where the index continued higher, with a median return of 2.9%, but declined in all seven cases where the rebound failed, with a median loss of 21%.
Technically, Bitcoin at $73,727 sits below its 200-day, 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $76,384, $77,411 and $78,701, and the RSI near 34 and negative MACD point to continued selling pressure. Resistance is seen at $85,000, while the article identifies the psychological support zone near $70,000 as the next downside level if current levels break.
Although the decision directly affects equity valuations rather than Bitcoin holdings, the article notes that forced selling could weigh on these treasury companies, which serve as an institutional gateway to bitcoin exposure, and could undermine investor confidence in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies. Institutional demand also softened, with SoSoValue data showing spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $299.90 million on Wednesday, the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals.
Bitcoin has underperformed the Nasdaq this week. The Nasdaq rose 3.55% on Monday while BTC gained 0.69%, and on Wednesday the index rose nearly 2% against Bitcoin's 0.30% gain. According to a K33 report cited by FXStreet, Bitcoin's subsequent 20-day performance followed the Nasdaq's direction in all five observed instances. In a sample of 16 strong Nasdaq rebounds, BTC gained in eight of nine cases where the index continued higher, with a median return of 2.9%, but declined in all seven cases where the rebound failed, with a median loss of 21%.
Technically, Bitcoin at $73,727 sits below its 200-day, 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $76,384, $77,411 and $78,701, and the RSI near 34 and negative MACD point to continued selling pressure. Resistance is seen at $85,000, while the article identifies the psychological support zone near $70,000 as the next downside level if current levels break.
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