Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin traded at $73,444 at 11:39 GMT on Thursday, down 0.79% over 24 hours and 8.66% over the week, per TradingView, after US spot bitcoin ETFs logged five consecutive sessions of net redemptions totaling $1.44 billion.
- • BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $269.73 million of the $299.90 million that left the twelve US spot funds on 11 November, concentrating redemption pressure in a single fund according to SoSoValue data.
- • October PPI lands Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern after core CPI printed 0.3% for a third straight month, with CME FedWatch showing the odds of a 50 basis point December hike rising to 15.3%.
- • Total net assets across the funds fell from $102.26 billion on 4 November to $93.70 billion on 11 November, an $8.56 billion decline of which redemptions explain only $1.44 billion.
- • Bitcoin sits below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, with support at $72,000 to $73,300 and resistance at $75,000 to $75,700, while MSCI index deletions effective after 30 November could force $2.8 billion of selling per JPMorgan estimates.
Summary
Bitcoin was trading at $73,444 at 11:39 GMT on Thursday, down 0.79% over 24 hours and 8.66% over the week, according to TradingView. US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded five consecutive sessions of net redemptions, beginning 5 November, and the outflow streak extends to Solana and XRP funds as well. SoSoValue data show the twelve US spot funds shed $299.90 million on 11 November, more than three times the prior session's outflow of $95.00 million. Earlier sessions recorded $201.08 million on 9 November, $411.92 million on 6 November and $430.20 million on 5 November, for a cumulative $1.44 billion withdrawn. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $269.73 million of the 11 November total, while Grayscale's GBTC added $39.13 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the only fund to take in capital, at $8.96 million.
Redemptions explain only a portion of the broader decline. Total net assets across the funds fell from $102.26 billion on 4 November to $93.70 billion on 11 November, an $8.56 billion drop, leaving roughly $7.12 billion attributable to price. Cumulative net inflows since launch now stand at $55.10 billion, down from $56.54 billion on 4 November. The funds hold 6.24% of Bitcoin's market capitalization, which stands at $1.48 trillion against 20.11 million coins in circulation.
The macro backdrop centers on inflation data. October headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month against a 0.3% consensus, with core inflation at 0.3% for a third consecutive month, according to TradingKey's read of the release. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said a reading at or above 0.3% might warrant a 50 basis point move. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 50 basis point December hike rising from 1.1% to 15.3% after the data, while Polymarket priced an 85% chance of a hike on 11 November. Producer price data for October is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
Technically, bitcoin trades below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, implying the average recent buyer is underwater. Support sits between $73,000 and $73,300 and near $72,000, with resistance at $75,000 to $75,700. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell to zero on 11 November, with eight of ten indicators bearish, down from 90 on 13 October. Options pricing shifted accordingly, with the probability of bitcoin clearing $90,000 by Christmas falling to 6% from 18% in a week. MSCI will drop companies classified as non-operating from its indexes after the close on 30 November, removing Strategy from the MSCI USA Index and Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index. JPMorgan estimates the Strategy deletion alone could force $2.8 billion of selling, potentially rising toward $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.
Redemptions explain only a portion of the broader decline. Total net assets across the funds fell from $102.26 billion on 4 November to $93.70 billion on 11 November, an $8.56 billion drop, leaving roughly $7.12 billion attributable to price. Cumulative net inflows since launch now stand at $55.10 billion, down from $56.54 billion on 4 November. The funds hold 6.24% of Bitcoin's market capitalization, which stands at $1.48 trillion against 20.11 million coins in circulation.
The macro backdrop centers on inflation data. October headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month against a 0.3% consensus, with core inflation at 0.3% for a third consecutive month, according to TradingKey's read of the release. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said a reading at or above 0.3% might warrant a 50 basis point move. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 50 basis point December hike rising from 1.1% to 15.3% after the data, while Polymarket priced an 85% chance of a hike on 11 November. Producer price data for October is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
Technically, bitcoin trades below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, implying the average recent buyer is underwater. Support sits between $73,000 and $73,300 and near $72,000, with resistance at $75,000 to $75,700. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell to zero on 11 November, with eight of ten indicators bearish, down from 90 on 13 October. Options pricing shifted accordingly, with the probability of bitcoin clearing $90,000 by Christmas falling to 6% from 18% in a week. MSCI will drop companies classified as non-operating from its indexes after the close on 30 November, removing Strategy from the MSCI USA Index and Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index. JPMorgan estimates the Strategy deletion alone could force $2.8 billion of selling, potentially rising toward $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.
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