Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise raised its 2036 bitcoin price target to $1.6 million from $1.3 million, implying a 34.3% compound annual return over the next decade, according to a forecast published October 28, 2026.
- • The base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets by 2036; the upgrade stems from larger market size estimates, not higher assumed share.
- • Bitwise's 2036 scenarios range from $130,686 in the bear case to $3.67 million in the bull case, with projected institutional bitcoin demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.
- • Bitwise lowered its average bitcoin volatility forecast to 27.8% from 32.9%, citing deeper institutional adoption and a shallower 53% drawdown from the October 2025 record above $126,000.
Summary
Bitwise has raised its bitcoin price target for 2036 to $1.6 million from $1.3 million, projecting a 34.3% compound annual return over the next decade. The forecast, set out in the firm's 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions and accompanied by a client note from Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, rests on larger estimates for the markets bitcoin competes in rather than a higher assumed market share.
Bitwise now expects the global store-of-value market to reach $110 trillion in 2036, up from $91 trillion in its previous forecast, and institutional investment assets to reach $303 trillion, up from $216 trillion. The $1.6 million base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. The projected 34.3% annual growth compares with average forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity, drawn from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard.
Bitwise projects institutional bitcoin demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion over the next decade, compared with roughly $14 billion in annual mining issuance. The demand estimate applies an expected bitcoin allocation of 1% to 5% to an institutional asset pool that the report draws from Boston Consulting Group's estimate of roughly $147 trillion. The report counts 20.1 million bitcoin in circulation, equal to 95.7% of the 21 million maximum supply.
The bear case of $130,686 assumes bitcoin captures 2.5% of the global store-of-value market, while the bull case of $3.67 million assumes 50%. Bitwise also lowered its projected average bitcoin volatility over the next decade to 27.8%, from 32.9% in its prior report. Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said deeper institutional adoption points toward smaller price swings, though he expects sharp downturns to continue, and said Bitwise expects bitcoin to outperform every other major institutional asset through 2036.
Bitwise cites bitcoin's roughly 53% decline from its October 2025 record above $126,000 as evidence of a shallower correction, compared with drawdowns of 86%, 84% and 77% after the record highs of 2013, 2017 and 2021. Hougan pointed to the smaller pullback, regulatory progress and demand for hard assets such as gold, while acknowledging that gold has attracted much of the store-of-value demand and that bitcoin ETF purchases have slowed. He noted that institutions continued increasing bitcoin exposure during the downturn and described bitcoin as a nearly $2 trillion asset, and that its share of the store-of-value market has grown from under 1% a decade ago to above 5% today.
Bitwise now expects the global store-of-value market to reach $110 trillion in 2036, up from $91 trillion in its previous forecast, and institutional investment assets to reach $303 trillion, up from $216 trillion. The $1.6 million base case assumes bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. The projected 34.3% annual growth compares with average forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity, drawn from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard.
Bitwise projects institutional bitcoin demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion over the next decade, compared with roughly $14 billion in annual mining issuance. The demand estimate applies an expected bitcoin allocation of 1% to 5% to an institutional asset pool that the report draws from Boston Consulting Group's estimate of roughly $147 trillion. The report counts 20.1 million bitcoin in circulation, equal to 95.7% of the 21 million maximum supply.
The bear case of $130,686 assumes bitcoin captures 2.5% of the global store-of-value market, while the bull case of $3.67 million assumes 50%. Bitwise also lowered its projected average bitcoin volatility over the next decade to 27.8%, from 32.9% in its prior report. Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said deeper institutional adoption points toward smaller price swings, though he expects sharp downturns to continue, and said Bitwise expects bitcoin to outperform every other major institutional asset through 2036.
Bitwise cites bitcoin's roughly 53% decline from its October 2025 record above $126,000 as evidence of a shallower correction, compared with drawdowns of 86%, 84% and 77% after the record highs of 2013, 2017 and 2021. Hougan pointed to the smaller pullback, regulatory progress and demand for hard assets such as gold, while acknowledging that gold has attracted much of the store-of-value demand and that bitcoin ETF purchases have slowed. He noted that institutions continued increasing bitcoin exposure during the downturn and described bitcoin as a nearly $2 trillion asset, and that its share of the store-of-value market has grown from under 1% a decade ago to above 5% today.
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