Key Takeaways
- • A Pluang personal blog post argues against investing in bitcoin, stating the author will not invest "not even $100" and considers bitcoin to have moved into a speculative zone rather than investment territory.
- • The post draws on a 2017-era article quoting Elliott Wave Theorist analyst Elliott Prechter, who wrote in a July 13 newsletter that a "bearish trifecta" would lead to the collapse of crypto mania and that the mania had dwarfed the Dutch tulip mania of the 1630s.
- • Prechter wrote that "It's too soon to know if Bitcoin is Facebook or MySpace," while also seeing long-term potential in crypto for automating banking and legal industries.
- • The author lists five unresolved questions on bitcoin, including what drives its price, whether it can become a bubble, the absence of government regulation, and who is accountable in a crash.
- • A separate publisher-context excerpt attributed to BlackRock frames bitcoin's long-term case around scarcity, spot ETF access and a small allocation improving 60/40 portfolio returns, while acknowledging historically high volatility and potential losses from poorly timed sales.
Summary
The primary source is an opinion piece by a Singapore-based author on the Pluang platform, arguing that bitcoin is not a suitable long-term investment given its extreme price volatility. The author states they stay away from assets they do not fully understand, and says they remain unconvinced by bitcoin's fundamentals, questioning why its price has risen so quickly compared with equities such as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. The author also raises concerns about the anonymity of creator Satoshi Nakamoto, the lack of government regulation, and accountability should a crash occur.
The article quotes at length from a 2017 piece by Evelyn Cheng, which reported that Elliott Wave Theorist analyst Elliott Prechter had written in the July 13 edition of his newsletter that a "bearish trifecta" of Elliott wave pattern, optimistic psychology and blockchain bottlenecks would lead to the collapse of crypto mania. Prechter said the price activity had dwarfed the Tulip mania of nearly 400 years earlier and noted the success of Bitcoin had spawned more than 800 alt-coins, most of which he described as pump-and-dump schemes. He also drew comparisons to 1999 forecasts for the Dow to reach 100,000 before the dotcom bust, and cited the NASDAQ's decline of almost 90% during 2000-2002 as a parallel for crypto's potential volatility.
The author's conclusion is that bitcoin has entered speculative territory and that they will not invest in it, while acknowledging they may be overly cautious. Publisher-context material attributed to BlackRock, by contrast, characterises bitcoin's long-term case as resting on scarcity, politically neutral reserve-asset status, easier access through spot ETFs and potential portfolio-diversification benefits, while cautioning that its price has historically been highly volatile and that selling at the wrong time could cause significant losses.
The article quotes at length from a 2017 piece by Evelyn Cheng, which reported that Elliott Wave Theorist analyst Elliott Prechter had written in the July 13 edition of his newsletter that a "bearish trifecta" of Elliott wave pattern, optimistic psychology and blockchain bottlenecks would lead to the collapse of crypto mania. Prechter said the price activity had dwarfed the Tulip mania of nearly 400 years earlier and noted the success of Bitcoin had spawned more than 800 alt-coins, most of which he described as pump-and-dump schemes. He also drew comparisons to 1999 forecasts for the Dow to reach 100,000 before the dotcom bust, and cited the NASDAQ's decline of almost 90% during 2000-2002 as a parallel for crypto's potential volatility.
The author's conclusion is that bitcoin has entered speculative territory and that they will not invest in it, while acknowledging they may be overly cautious. Publisher-context material attributed to BlackRock, by contrast, characterises bitcoin's long-term case as resting on scarcity, politically neutral reserve-asset status, easier access through spot ETFs and potential portfolio-diversification benefits, while cautioning that its price has historically been highly volatile and that selling at the wrong time could cause significant losses.
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