Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin fell to a 12-week low near $67,770 on Friday, trading around $68,500 to $68,760 by midday in New York, as traders priced in a December Federal Reserve rate increase.
- • CoinGlass data showed $1.64 billion in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 88.7%, including $916 million in bitcoin futures.
- • U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a sixth straight session of net outflows, bringing November withdrawals to roughly $1.88 billion.
- • Futures markets assign roughly 88% to 92% odds to a quarter-point Fed increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with the Dollar Index above 103 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.13%.
- • Bitcoin is trading about 1.5% above its 200-week moving average of $67,752, a level briefly breached on Friday; a weekly close below it is a signal many chart watchers track.
Summary
Bitcoin slid to its weakest level in 12 weeks on Friday, falling as low as $67,770, a level last seen on Aug. 19, and trading around $68,500 by midday in New York. Ether dropped to $1,900, its lowest since Aug. 18, while the CoinDesk 20 Index declined 2%. Solana slipped below $80 even after the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. added it to its tokenization plans for a 2027 rollout. The decline was part of a broader risk-off session, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.2%.
The selloff was driven largely by rate expectations. Futures markets now price roughly 88% to 92% odds of a quarter-point Fed increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with the remainder priced for a half-point move. The repricing followed hotter-than-expected October inflation data. Producer prices climbed 0.3% in October and 6.5% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since 2022. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation is spreading into services and medical costs, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed at least a 0.25 percentage point increase in December without ruling out a larger move. The Dollar Index rose above 103, its highest since April 2025, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.13%.
Leveraged traders absorbed the heaviest losses. CoinGlass data showed $1.64 billion of crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours, with long bets making up 88.7%. Bitcoin futures accounted for $916 million, and ether for $289 million. Futures volume rose 58.3% to $269.1 billion while open interest fell 4.6% to $120.2 billion, indicating positions were closed rather than rolled. On the ETF side, U.S. spot bitcoin funds extended a sixth straight session of net withdrawals, with $47.7 million leaving on Thursday according to Farside Investors. November outflows total roughly $1.88 billion, though the funds still hold about $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Derivatives positioning points to continued caution. Perpetual futures funding rates turned negative across most major tokens, and the one-week 25-delta skew for bitcoin rose to about 14%, meaning downside protection costs more than upside exposure. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 19 to 20, its lowest since July 8. Bitcoin's next support levels cited were $64,111, the Aug. 19 low, then $60,074 and $57,748. Recovering the 200-day average at $73,081 would be needed to change the near-term picture. The DeFi sector also came under pressure: Nasdaq-listed BTCS disclosed it sold ether at a loss to protect a roughly $64 million Aave loan, a position that by CoinDesk's calculations would be threatened near $1,717 per ether.
Key events ahead include the Fed's November meeting minutes on Nov. 18 and the November PCE inflation report on Nov. 25, both of which could reshape December rate expectations. Bitcoin is down 21% from its autumn high near $86,000 and 45.5% below its all-time high of $126,198 set on Oct. 6, 2025.
The selloff was driven largely by rate expectations. Futures markets now price roughly 88% to 92% odds of a quarter-point Fed increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, with the remainder priced for a half-point move. The repricing followed hotter-than-expected October inflation data. Producer prices climbed 0.3% in October and 6.5% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since 2022. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation is spreading into services and medical costs, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed at least a 0.25 percentage point increase in December without ruling out a larger move. The Dollar Index rose above 103, its highest since April 2025, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.13%.
Leveraged traders absorbed the heaviest losses. CoinGlass data showed $1.64 billion of crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours, with long bets making up 88.7%. Bitcoin futures accounted for $916 million, and ether for $289 million. Futures volume rose 58.3% to $269.1 billion while open interest fell 4.6% to $120.2 billion, indicating positions were closed rather than rolled. On the ETF side, U.S. spot bitcoin funds extended a sixth straight session of net withdrawals, with $47.7 million leaving on Thursday according to Farside Investors. November outflows total roughly $1.88 billion, though the funds still hold about $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Derivatives positioning points to continued caution. Perpetual futures funding rates turned negative across most major tokens, and the one-week 25-delta skew for bitcoin rose to about 14%, meaning downside protection costs more than upside exposure. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 19 to 20, its lowest since July 8. Bitcoin's next support levels cited were $64,111, the Aug. 19 low, then $60,074 and $57,748. Recovering the 200-day average at $73,081 would be needed to change the near-term picture. The DeFi sector also came under pressure: Nasdaq-listed BTCS disclosed it sold ether at a loss to protect a roughly $64 million Aave loan, a position that by CoinDesk's calculations would be threatened near $1,717 per ether.
Key events ahead include the Fed's November meeting minutes on Nov. 18 and the November PCE inflation report on Nov. 25, both of which could reshape December rate expectations. Bitcoin is down 21% from its autumn high near $86,000 and 45.5% below its all-time high of $126,198 set on Oct. 6, 2025.
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