Key Takeaways
- • Bitfinex reports bitcoin briefly fell to the short-term holder cost basis of $75,839 after the US mid-term elections before recovering into the $77,000–$80,000 support range, but the rebound is driven mainly by perpetual futures rather than spot demand.
- • Aggregate bitcoin futures open interest reached 701,548 BTC on November 3, its highest since September 22, while perpetual funding rates held near an annualised 11% over two weeks.
- • US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows over three sessions between October 30 and November 2, the largest since the end of June, leaving 2026 cumulative flows slightly negative at $60 million net outflows.
- • The short-term holder SOPR stayed below 1 for six consecutive sessions, reaching 0.994 on November 4, while net realised losses widened to 24,600 BTC on November 4 from 13,000 BTC on November 2.
- • Bitfinex says a sustained move below the short-term holder cost basis would meet little support before the $70,000–$75,000 range, and only about 353,000 BTC was acquired between $75,000 and $77,000.
Summary
Bitcoin has regained its key support zone, but subdued spot buying and continued selling are raising doubts about the durability of the recovery. In a report published November 4, 2026, titled "ETF Outflows And Spot Selling Test Bitcoin's Recovery," Bitfinex said bitcoin briefly fell to the short-term holder cost basis of $75,839 following the US mid-term elections before recovering into the $77,000–$80,000 range. Bitfinex cautioned that floors supported mainly by perpetual futures buying have historically not lasted long.
Derivatives appear to be carrying much of the bid. Aggregate bitcoin futures open interest reached 701,548 BTC on November 3, its highest level since September 22. Perpetual funding rates remained near an annualised 11% over the past two weeks despite the price correction, while spot buyers showed little aggression. Bitfinex said this suggests buying below $77,000 relies primarily on perpetual futures positions.
Spot holders are still selling, though at a slower pace than during the early October highs above $80,000. The short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio stayed below 1 for six consecutive trading sessions and reached 0.994 on November 4, indicating coins are being sold at a loss and marking the longest such run since the eight days ending August 17. Net realised losses across all holders widened to 24,600 BTC on November 4 from 13,000 BTC on November 2, the largest since August 7. According to Bitfinex, holders who bought between $77,000 and $84,000 in October sold as prices approached their cost basis rather than buying to defend it, and every recovery since October 30 was driven by short covering rather than fresh demand.
UTXO Realised Price Distribution data show supply acquired between $77,000 and $80,000 rising to 1.28 million BTC on November 4 from 1.05 million BTC on November 1, while supply acquired between $81,000 and $84,000 fell by 92,000 BTC to 1.12 million BTC. Bitfinex characterized this as coins moving from October buyers to new holders within the support band, concentrating holdings there without adding net demand. Only about 353,000 BTC was acquired between $75,000 and $77,000, so a sustained break below the short-term holder cost basis would encounter little support before the $70,000–$75,000 range.
ETF flows have also weakened. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows over three trading sessions between October 30 and November 2, the largest since the end of June, leaving cumulative 2026 flows slightly negative at $60 million in net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $405.3 million of outflows on November 2, its largest daily withdrawal since June 26, although the fund retains about $3.7 billion in net inflows for the year. Bitfinex said a single day of inflows on November 4 would offer little evidence of renewed demand, and that three consecutive days of inflows comparable to recent withdrawals would be the first sign that institutional demand has returned.
Derivatives appear to be carrying much of the bid. Aggregate bitcoin futures open interest reached 701,548 BTC on November 3, its highest level since September 22. Perpetual funding rates remained near an annualised 11% over the past two weeks despite the price correction, while spot buyers showed little aggression. Bitfinex said this suggests buying below $77,000 relies primarily on perpetual futures positions.
Spot holders are still selling, though at a slower pace than during the early October highs above $80,000. The short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio stayed below 1 for six consecutive trading sessions and reached 0.994 on November 4, indicating coins are being sold at a loss and marking the longest such run since the eight days ending August 17. Net realised losses across all holders widened to 24,600 BTC on November 4 from 13,000 BTC on November 2, the largest since August 7. According to Bitfinex, holders who bought between $77,000 and $84,000 in October sold as prices approached their cost basis rather than buying to defend it, and every recovery since October 30 was driven by short covering rather than fresh demand.
UTXO Realised Price Distribution data show supply acquired between $77,000 and $80,000 rising to 1.28 million BTC on November 4 from 1.05 million BTC on November 1, while supply acquired between $81,000 and $84,000 fell by 92,000 BTC to 1.12 million BTC. Bitfinex characterized this as coins moving from October buyers to new holders within the support band, concentrating holdings there without adding net demand. Only about 353,000 BTC was acquired between $75,000 and $77,000, so a sustained break below the short-term holder cost basis would encounter little support before the $70,000–$75,000 range.
ETF flows have also weakened. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows over three trading sessions between October 30 and November 2, the largest since the end of June, leaving cumulative 2026 flows slightly negative at $60 million in net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $405.3 million of outflows on November 2, its largest daily withdrawal since June 26, although the fund retains about $3.7 billion in net inflows for the year. Bitfinex said a single day of inflows on November 4 would offer little evidence of renewed demand, and that three consecutive days of inflows comparable to recent withdrawals would be the first sign that institutional demand has returned.
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